We’ve narrowed down the college football betting slate this conference championship weekend to just a few games, but there are many intriguing matchups.
Can Alabama as an extremely rare underdog beat rival Georgia in the SEC championship game?
Will Iowa score any points in the Big Ten title game against Michigan?
BetFTW spoke to Seamus Magee, a sportsbook trader at BetMGM, and Paul Stone, a professional bettor, to get their take on all five major college football championship games.
Pac-12: Washington vs. Oregon

(Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)
DraftKings betting splits: 70 percent of bets on Washington +10, 58 percent of money wagered on Oregon -10
Stone: “These are two teams that have gone in opposite directions since they met in that classic game in Seattle in mid-October. In the past six games, Oregon has won by an average of 26 PPG, only one of those less than double-digits – and they led USC 36-14. The Ducks are right there with Georgia as the top team in my power ratings. Washington has sputtered at times over the second half of the season, most of their games have been competitive and they don’t seem to have the same edge as they did back in September and early portion of October. I like the trajectory of this Oregon team and I like them -9.5 over Washington. That’s one of my plays this week.”
Magee: “Moneyline is all Oregon, everyone is throwing them into parlays. Sharps got on the -8.5 at the open, lookahead was as low as -7. If we can get Washington outright, that would be huge. On the 9.5, it’s been really good two-way action. Little bit of sharp action on the OVER, but it’s a high total.”
Big 12: Oklahoma State vs. Texas

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DK betting splits: 52 percent of bets on Oklahoma State +15.5, 52 percent of money wagered on Texas -15.5
Stone: “I made this game Texas a 10.5-point favorite. Admittedly I was a touch light, but this number is now over two TDs? Frankly, I think it’s gotten out of control and market is suffering from a case of extreme recency bias. Texas, obviously, was very impressive in a 50-point win over Texas Tech last week. When we last saw Oklahoma State, it was struggling to rally and beat BYU in double overtime, and while last week’s results must be heavily considered, they at the same time don’t supersede the previous 11 data points for both teams. Texas has struggled at times to put away opponents and historically Oklahoma State and Mike Gundy have fared well as both an underdog and against Texas.
“In the last five meetings between these schools, Oklahoma State has been ‘dog four times — and has covered all four and won three games outright. Little bit of a concern that Texas might be pressing to impress the committee and has the burden of expectations, while Oklahoma State is playing with house money. I like the Cowboys to cover here.”
Magee: “We opened Texas -14.5, went up to -15.5, both sharp and public are on this one. We’re going to need Oklahoma State. I think you have a lot of public bettors thinking they need to make a statement in this game. Nothing big on the total.”
SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia

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DK betting splits: 65 percent of bets on Georgia -5.5, 72 percent of money wagered on Georgia -5.5
Stone: “On the lookahead line, this was Georgia -4 before Alabama’s close call at Auburn, so underdog players are getting 1.5 or 2 points based on that single performance. On paper, Georgia clearly looks like the superior, more complete team, but giving Nick Saban six points when most of the college football world isn’t giving him much of a chance might be a dangerous game. At 5.5 I would pass, but at 6 I’d lean Alabama because they’re not in this role very often.”
Magee: It’s a lot of Georgia money in this one – one-way action on Georgia spread and ML. We’re at 6, opened -5.5. I feel like that Auburn game skewed some opinions. Best result for us is Alabama covers and loses outright to help knock a big Alabama futures bet out.”
ACC: Louisville vs. Florida State

(John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports)
DK betting splits: 65 percent of bets on Florida State -1.5, 63 percent of money wagered on FSU -1.5
Stone: “In this game, I like the total to go UNDER 47.5. Both of these teams are very solid defensively, Louisville gives up less than 100 yards a game rushing – an average of 3.3 yards per rush. With Tate Rodemaker at QB, I see Florida State leaning more heavily on the running game and trying to keep him out of harm’s way – a formula that I use projects 125 plays in this game, which is well below the college football average.
“Last week, against a very suspect Florida defense, Florida State ran 57 plays for 224 yards (3.9 YPP); in its previous five games, the Florida defense –South Carolina, Georgia, Arkansas, LSU and Mizzou — had allowed an average of 41.2 PPG and 528.2 YPG. All five of those opponents gained at least 465 yards against Florida. And Louisville’s defense is much better than Florida’s. I see a low-scoring game.”
Magee: “Little bit of sharp play on Louisville, moved us off a flat 3. Public is on Florida State spread and money line.”
Big Ten: Iowa vs. Michigan

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DK betting splits: 55 percent of bets on Michigan -22, 67 percent of money wagered on Michigan -22
From a betting standpoint, this one is really unattractive to me based on the likely non-competitiveness of the game. I think at 22.5 or if it touches 23 again, I might take Iowa. This is a game that’s difficult from my perspective from a handicapping standpoint to identify an edge. Michigan needs a healthy football team rather than style points, but they’re the far superior team, so it’s difficult to feel great confidence in taking Iowa. Some of the most unexpected outcomes can come of out nowhere, but it’s hard to envision how Iowa wins this game. Michigan can get over that total by itself.
Magee: “Some sharp money pushed us up to Michigan -22.5. We’re going to need the UNDER, plenty of money already on the OVER. We’ll need Iowa to hang around.”