Memphis Grizzlies big man Jaren Jackson Jr. was recently the subject of the dumbest controversy of the NBA season thus far.
Jackson was mentioned in a viral Reddit post accusing the Grizzlies scorekeepers of posting “fraudulent numbers” to improve the big man’s chances of winning the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year.
It is a lofty accusation and one that is fairly hard to prove, but the general thesis is that the scorekeepers in Memphis are embellishing Jackson’s stats and crediting him with blocks and steals he did not deserve. Reddit has since labeled the post as misleading.
But still, the conspiracy theory spread like wildfire and it quickly became one of the most widely discussed conversations on #NBATwitter.
Memphis Grizzlies’ scorekeeper is likely embellishing defensive stats for DPOY candidate Jaren Jackson Jr.
(via u/AdMassive6666 on Reddit) pic.twitter.com/KqqQGOQYuA
— Jon Asaad (@jaynbablog) January 28, 2023
The discussion was so widespread that his odds to win Defensive Player of the Year swung drastically during the same time period that the debate began to heat up.
Grizzlies coach Taylor Jenkins described the entire situation as “foolish” and Jackson addressed the conspiracy as well.
Jaren Jackson Jr. on his Reddit stats conspiracy:
“I thought it was funny. I didn’t even understand it at first.”“But I saw that I beat the case!”
— Drew Hill (@DrewHill_DM) January 30, 2023
While he claimed that he didn’t understand what was happening at first, he now asserted that he has “beat” the case.
Jackson is absolutely correct; the odds are now back to where they were before this maddening conversation.
Here are some of the main reasons why it’s clear that this is a non-issue:
1
Opponents are still not able to score against JJJ at the rim
Let’s fully ignore all of his blocks and steals and defensive counting stats that can potentially be fudged by a scorekeeper.
The Athletic’s Seth Partnow has a fascinating metric that does not use blocks to calculate rim protection. Instead, he involves rim FG% allowed vs. contests, frequency of contests, and opponent rim attempt rate while a player is on the floor.
Jackson leads the league in rim protection points saved, and while he is 2.2 points per 100 possession better at home than on the road, his splits at home and on the road would both rank as the best in the league.
https://t.co/xBl7nwREaR pic.twitter.com/Mn3fSCLgZ8
— Anchorage Man (@SethPartnow) January 28, 2023
It doesn’t actually matter whether or not Jackson is recording blocks to measure his impact on the court.
Memphis is allowing the other team to shoot 65.1 percent at the rim during minutes when Jackson is NOT on the court, per Cleaning the Glass, which ranks slightly better than the league average (66.5 percent) so far this season.
But opponents are just 54.5 percent at the rim when Jackon is on the court. That on-off swing is the largest of any player (minimum: 150 minutes) in 2022-23.
Even more impressive: Opponents are specifically shooting 45.2 percent on field goals at the rim when Jackson is the nearest defender, perPBPStats, which is the best in the league among those who have defended at least 165 attempts in that zone.
the best rim protectors in 2022-23 by rdfg% (relative defensive fg%) around the basket pic.twitter.com/1yNmUVDI22
— mathketball (@Mathketball1) January 29, 2023
Overall, his opponents are also shooting 15.0 percentage points worse when Jackson is the nearest defender on attempts within six feet relative to their field goal percentage when they are defended by anyone else.
That is on par with just former NBA Defensive Player of the Year winners Draymond Green (15.3) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (15.3) for the best in the NBA. He is still one of the best rim protectors in the league even if you do not use blocks as a statistical input.
Regardless of whether or not the blocks and steals should be awarded to Jackson or someone else, he has played a significant role in why the Grizzlies have the NBA’s best defense since returning from injury on Nov. 15.
2
The league has an official audit system to avoid these issues
According to Zach Kram, beginning in the 2017-18 season, the league instituted a “stats auditor” to watch games at the replay center in New Jersey (via The Ringer):
“Using a DVR-style device to review plays during breaks in action, this individual can serve as a fallback option in the case of a misawarded number in the box score. All decisions are made by the in-arena stats crews, the NBA official stressed, but the auditor can work in conjunction with them and recommend certain changes as the game speeds by. The more eyes, the official said, the better.”
Kram noted that aside from assists, blocks were “the easiest stat for home scorekeepers to fudge” but that “home-court block bias” dropped to almost zero once the auditor was introduced.
The league issued a statement about the controversy:
“In order to ensure the integrity of our game statistics, auditors, independent of the statisticians on-site, review all plays and stats decisions in real-time during NBA games. If changes are necessary, they are made at that time or following a postgame review. All of the plays questioned in the post on Memphis games were scored consistently within the rules set forth by the NBA statisticians manual.”
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst added that it would take multiple people involved, across multiple cities, in order to cook the books.
3
Rulebook experts don't think JJJ is getting a favorable whistle
Neema Djavadzadeh was a stats auditor for the NBA G League.
He tweeted that the NBA uses “multiple stat checkers” as well as a dozen camera angles (some of which are not available to the public) and that the stat “wouldn’t get finalized” if it was deemed incorrect.
Djavadzadeh posted a Twitter thread providing some context:
🧵: Gonna go ahead and answer all of these if I can and give my input as someone who was a stat checker for the NBA.
JJJ probably gets a hand on the ball here with Zion in an upward motion. These get started as blocks. https://t.co/0hLuLTNjC7
— Neema (@findingneema23) January 28, 2023
Djavadzadeh concluded that there is not a “legitimate scandal” here, and he is not alone in this assertion.
The Box And One’s Adam Spinella summarized these decisions as “close plays and judgment calls” after he reviewed several of the videos.
Veteran reporter and analyst Tom Haberstroh also believes that those who “know the NBA rulebook” will walk away from this thinking it is making a mountain out of a molehill.
1. Thread: THE JJJ FILES
I just watched all of JJJ’s 66 blocks in Memphis this year.
Here are my findings
1. JJJ might be the top rim protector on earth.
2. Of the 66 blocks, at least 60 are clearly blocked by JJJ
3. 3 to 5 are questionable
4. 2 are kinda sus (here they are) pic.twitter.com/3n5rYp6Zgz— Kirk Goldsberry (@kirkgoldsberry) January 28, 2023
ESPN’s Kirk Goldsberry watched each block Jackson has recorded thus far and believes only two were questionable.
The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor also said that he watched every single block from Jackson so far this season and walked away believing that only three were incorrectly labeled.
I watched every block by Jaren Jackson Jr. in slow motion from alternate angles to investigate the NBA Reddit thread claiming the Grizzlies scorekeeper is "posting fraudulent numbers."
But only 3 of his 66 home blocks are incorrectly labeled, a completely insignificant amount. pic.twitter.com/84ZiE1rPVD
— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) January 28, 2023
But there is enough grey area that if someone did the same for other Defensive Player of the Year hopefuls like Bam Adebayo or Nicolas Claxton, the results may be similar.
This seems to be a consensus opinion from insiders who know the game.
4
It's not that out of the ordinary that someone plays better at home than on the road
Across the board, including stats like points or 3-point percentage that cannot be altered by a home scorekeeper, Jackson has simply performed better when he has played at the FedEx Forum.
Cory Jez, the on-air analytics insider for the Trail Blazers, reported that Jackson’s opponent field goal percentage and his pick-and-roll defense are both better at home than on the road as well.
These stats, Jez explained, “cannot be manipulated by human input” but may just suggest that Jackson simply plays better in front of a home crowd than he does on the road.
Basketball player is better at home than on the road: This is a HUGE conspiracy.
— Yaya Dubin (@JADubin5) January 28, 2023
This, of course, isn’t just an isolated issue that happens with Jackson. On a league-wide basis, per Blake Murphy, blocks are 2.5 percent higher for home teams than road teams.
Jackson’s home-road splits may be notable, but let’s not fool ourselves. Home-court advantage happens with everyone, though it’s not because anyone is cheating.
