When it comes to competition, one of the best ways to get an edge on the opposition is through prior preparation. In fantasy football, that way of thinking certainly applies. Here at Bet For The Win, we’re doing the preparation for you.
There’s nothing like the random chaos of fantasy football this year (or any year). Last week was a perfect example. Just when you thought he wasn’t viable anymore, the Chicago Bears’ Justin Fields drops four touchdowns on an actual live NFL defense. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans’ Nico Collins is still running rampant through the Pittsburgh Steelers’ secondary somewhere. These are simply outcomes no one can expect, making them much more enjoyable.
This week, I’ll try to give you some of these unexpected diamonds in the rough. For one, there’s a gifted receiver with a backup quarterback that shouldn’t be written off. Closer to Lake Michigan, we have a speedster acting as the final puzzle piece for a stacked offense.
Let’s break down Week 5’s studs and duds and hand out some winning decisions for your starting lineup.
Studs
Via OlyDrop
WR George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Baltimore Ravens)
Yes, I know Matt Canada’s offense stinks. Yes, I also know that Mitchell Trubisky — who will be filling in for an injured Kenny Pickett — traditionally stinks, too. But folks, I promise: Trubisky will be a far better distributor for the Steelers’ playmakers against Baltimore. Expect Pickens to be a huge beneficiary.
WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins (vs. New York Giants)
Waddle has yet to go off this year. On Sunday against New York, look for the Dolphins to make a conscientious effort to get Waddle involved in the offense. Waddle has seen just 16 targets this year, and I have a hard time imagining that Mike McDaniel doesn’t start pulling out all the stops to help his second-best playmaker. The bumbling Giants are perfect practice for that.
RB Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders (vs. Chicago Bears)
At home, on a short week against the NFL’s worst defense? (Clasps hands together) hoo boy, a revitalized Robinson is about to gash the Bears up and down on a Thursday night national stage. Prepare for a 100-plus-yard effort from a guy averaging over four yards a carry as Sam Howell’s main offensive reprieve.
WR Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders (vs. Chicago Bears)
Friends, I hear you. I can’t always put two players from one team in the same section. But come on, it’s the Bears. Their defense is the definition of “get right.” McLaurin is a superstar WR1 who has yet to record 100 yards in a game this year. That Chicago secondary, which was already bad to begin with, is hurting. So, McLaurin managers should be licking their chops.
Duds
Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union
QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Buffalo Bills)
We may have anointed Lawrence as the next big thing way too soon. In what was supposed to be a stratospheric Year 3, the former No. 1 overall pick has been one of football’s least efficient and least effective quarterbacks. We are slowly veering into territory where Lawrence’s poor play is no longer of a small sample size. He now gets the pleasure of facing a vicious Buffalo defense that stole Tua Tagovailoa’s lunch money and called him mean names. Yeah, no thanks.
RB Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans (at Atlanta Falcons)
A bright spot on a bad Texans team last year, Pierce is feeling the effects of C.J. Stroud’s rise. After rushing for over 900 yards on 220 carries in 2022, Pierce has just 64 carries for 181 yards this year. On an approximate 17-game pace, he’ll have more carries and just over 700 yards rushing. Bleh. It’s abundantly clear that getting Pierce going has taken a backseat to Stroud dropping dimes in the passing game. Fade Pierce hard … if you haven’t already.
QB Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints (at New England Patriots)
In all fairness to Derek Carr, it’s impossible to discern how much of a factor his injured shoulder was in laying an egg last Sunday. That’s because Carr often plays quarterback like he has an injured shoulder, regardless of his health. This week, he plays against a Bill Belichick defense in the top 10 in most metrics. I highly urge you to avoid relying on Carr checking down to nowhere.
RB Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys (at San Francisco 49ers)
The last time Pollard played San Francisco, he recorded 33 all-purpose yards before a disastrous leg injury knocked him out. Even at a return to full health for Pollard, the 2023 Dallas offense hasn’t given me any inkling it has a way to spring its prize tailback against the class of the NFC. If the Cowboys will win this matchup, it’ll be on the strength of Dak Prescott, not the running game.
Sleepers
AP Photo/Paul Sancya, File
WR Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions (vs. Carolina Panthers)
The one thing, and I mean the one thing, the Lions’ offense was missing was a legitimate big-play element downfield. Enter the electric Williams in his return from a gambling suspension. It’s impossible to know what kind of shape Williams is after having missed the season’s first month. Call it a hunch, but I think offensive coordinator Ben Johnson makes him a centerpiece of Sunday’s game plan.
TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
The Bills haven’t really had to worry about their Stefon Diggs and Everyone Else passing offense just yet. But if there were a time to start utilizing their talented rookie “move” tight end Dalton Kincaid more, it’d be in London against Jacksonville. The young man (and his very patient fantasy managers) have earned some red-zone targets.
WR Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
Don’t look now, but Wilson has nine receptions for 162 yards and two scores in his last two games. Mind you, those games took place against two elite defenses in Dallas and San Francisco. I see no reason for Wilson’s recent hot streak to stop against the Bengals at home.
QB Zach Wilson, New York Jets (at Denver Broncos)
Look, if Justin Fields could cut up Denver’s historically awful defense, then so can Wilson. Any quarterback playing against that defense will be a must-start until further notice. I know Sunday night was a harsh result for Wilson, especially considering that he actually outplayed Patrick Mahomes, and his team still lost. It’ll be gratifying when he also outplays Russell Wilson in his own house in the Rocky Mountains.
