When it comes to competition, one of the best ways to get an edge on the opposition is through prior preparation. In fantasy football, that way of thinking certainly applies. Here at Bet For The Win, we’re doing the preparation for you.
Don’t look now, but Russell Wilson isn’t the NFL’s worst quarterback anymore.
In fact, the numbers suggest Wilson is (somewhat) closer to his heyday than anyone is willing to believe. Per RBDSM.com, Wilson’s expected points added (EPA) and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) of 0.111 is 10th best among all qualified starters and ranks higher than C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence. He’s also thrown the fifth-most touchdown passes (16), with only Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, Kirk Cousins, and Patrick Mahomes faring better.
All of that is well and good, but there is a rub. Wilson is just 20th in yards per pass attempt (6.9), suggesting he isn’t really pushing the ball downfield much. He’s also only 23rd in passing yards, clearly denoting that he’s been a red-zone passing demon and nothing more. I don’t think we’ll ever get a Pro Bowl Wilson again. Those days are long gone. But he’s not entirely washed up and is undoubtedly good enough to start in fantasy once more, depending on the matchup.
This week’s studs, duds, and sleepers showcase a second-fiddle star receiver getting the limelight. We’ve also got the rare Alabama disappointment on the outside and everyone’s favorite football-playing rocket scientist continuing his amazing story.
Let’s dive in and get you a big-time win, friends.
Studs
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
QB Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos (at Buffalo Bills)
Without Matt Milano, Tre’Davious White, and Daquan Jones, the Bills’ defense has shuttered. It’s a shell of itself. The Bills rank just 17th in DVOA efficiency and are coming off a Sunday night battle where they let Joe Burrow do whatever he wanted. I’m not saying we’re going to see vintage Wilson this Monday night, but I’m also not NOT saying it.
WR Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Houston Texans)
Potentially no Ja’Marr Chase means more opportunities for Higgins, who has been brilliant since returning from a rib injury (13 receptions on an efficient 15 targets for 179 yards in two games). The story in Houston is undoubtedly C.J. Stroud. He’s been so good no one cares about an inept defense that continually forces Stroud to rescue the Texans. I smell a smattering of Higgins dunks coming to victimize the sorry Houston defensive backs.
RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (at New England Patriots)
It’s a real shame Jim Irsay wanted to disrespectfully play financial possum with his team’s best player because that means we got to watch less of a masterful Taylor. Since returning to the Indy lineup, Taylor has been excellent. He’s got two touchdowns and 385 yards from scrimmage on 77 touches in only three outings. Essentially, he looks like an All-Pro caliber back again. The Colts will likely ride his services to a hopeful road win in New England.
TE Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (vs. Carolina Panthers)
I know what you’re thinking: a Bears skill player? Really? Stick with me here. Though nine games, among all tight ends, Kmet is fifth in receptions, ranks fifth in receptions for first downs, is second in touchdowns (he has more than Travis Kelce!), and has zero drops. Kmet is a bona fide TE1, and it’s time we start acting it. If he’s in your lineup, you should be starting him every week. A dominant performance against woeful Carolina is the baseline expectation.
Duds
Kirthmon F. Dozier/USA TODAY NETWORK
WR Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions (at Los Angeles Chargers)
Williams was supposed to unlock the vertical elements of Detroit’s passing game. He’s done anything but. In his return from a gambling suspension, the former first-round pick has just six catches on 15 targets for 71 yards and a single touchdown in four games. Pro Football Focus has him graded out with a miserable 46.0 receiving grade, and it feels entirely justified. Factor in the recent addition of Donovan Peoples-Jones and using the dreaded b-word (“bust”) to describe Williams is starting to appear realistic.
WR Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers (at Chicago Bears)
The classic wily veteran. Even though Thielen can’t really separate anymore, he’s 12th in the NFL in receiving. That’s vet savviness, folks. Unfortunately, the disappointing Bryce Young remains his quarterback. He also gets the likely pleasure of being shadowed by Chicago’s Jaylon Johnson — a cornerback seemingly destined for Second or First-Team All-Pro nods after the season. Good luck to Thielen. He’ll need it.
WR Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders (at Seattle Seahawks)
Everything is stacked against Dotson this week. He’s part of an East Coast team traveling three time zones to play in Seattle, one of the NFL’s genuinely toughest road environments. Once he gets there, his reward is to be guarded by some measure of Tariq Woolen and/or Devon Witherspoon (a.k.a. pro football’s top cornerback duo). Dotson is a solid young player, but even that’s too much to overcome for him.
WR Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
OK, I know Kyler Murray is back this week. But the man hasn’t played an NFL game in almost a full year after tearing his ACL. He’s gonna be a bit rusty against a quietly stingy Falcons defense. That is awful news for any Arizona playmakers like Brown. Wait at least another week before thinking you have something magical in Hollywood again.
Sleepers
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
QB Josh Dobbs, Minnesota Vikings (vs. New Orleans Saints)
Just like it did in Arizona, Dobbs’ Minnesota play will shine like a bright comet streaking across the sky that melts away through the Earth’s atmosphere in no time. He’s a career journeyman quarterback for a very good reason. But for now (sits down on top of a delightfully positioned slide): weeeeeeeeeeeee.
WR Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills (vs. Denver Broncos)
The Bills’ offense isn’t the problem in Buffalo. And a rising group of playmakers led by Shakir is deservedly starting to enter the circle of trust. Shakir has 14 targets and 14 catches for 184 yards over his last three games. It’s obvious he’s earned Josh Allen’s faith while working from the slot. If Josh Allen likes someone, I like them, too.
TE Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers (at Pittsburgh Steelers)
If a dreaded bye week hit you hard this week, taking a flier on Musgrave as a TE2 filling could do the trick. Even within the constraints of the Packers’ anemic offense, Musgrave has been a breath of fresh air. The natural runner had easily the finest game of his career against the Los Angeles Rams (three receptions, 51 yards, one touchdown). This Sunday, he could be the benefactor of a blown Steelers coverage or three.
WR Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos (at Buffalo Bills)
Even with all the Steve Smith drama, the Broncos didn’t give up on Jeudy. While I have doubts the apparent goodwill between both parties lasts, for now, the Broncos look smart. Jeudy’s got seven catches for 114 yards and a touchdown in his last two games. Don’t be shocked to see a true breakout against Buffalo’s shaky back end.
