When it comes to competition, one of the best ways to get an edge on the opposition is through prior preparation. In fantasy football, that way of thinking certainly applies. Here at Bet For The Win, we’re doing the preparation for you.
Congratulations, everyone. We made it. Give yourselves a pat on the back.
Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season is finally upon us. And with the first meaningful pro football game just around the corner, that means it’s time to find some winning plays for your first fantasy football lineup(s).
Below, you’ll find BetFTW’s projected studs, duds, and sleepers for Week 1 — including a certain young star quarterback in Florida and an overrated runner near the Northeastern coastline.These selections will point you in the right direction toward a win.
It’s a long season, folks. Let’s strap in.
Studs
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QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Indianapolis Colts)
Lawrence finished his sophomore NFL season as one of the league’s most efficient passers. He now gets to throw to a skill position group that features a bona fide No. 1 receiver in Calvin Ridley. Aside from individual standouts like Shaquille Leonard and DeForest Buckner, the Colts’ defense is atrocious on paper. Expect Lawrence to cut them up like a surgeon.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions (at Kansas City Chiefs)
(Likely) no Chris Jones means plenty more time for Jared Goff to find his favorite target, Amon-Ra St. Brown. The young wideout has nearly 200 catches in just two seasons and is arguably the best slot receiver in the game. He’ll feast on a shorthanded Kansas City defense Thursday night.
QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Houston Texans)
Jackson is a newly-minted $185 million man who can now boast weapons like Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. Houston had one of the NFL’s worst defenses in 2022. Even if Will Anderson proves to be a force from the jump, the unit shouldn’t be demonstrably better.
WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Jefferson averaged seven receptions and 106 yards per game last year. I repeat: That was his average. Between Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis, I don’t know who’s getting the unfortunate task of covering Jefferson Sunday, but it doesn’t matter.
Duds
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QB Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
Watson — who once faced more than 20 allegations of sexual misconduct in what the NFL would later characterize as “predatory behavior” — has been horrendous as a Brown thus far. He now faces one of the better defenses in the league, led by defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo — a surefire head coaching candidate come this January.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
Listen. I love Stevenson. I think he’s perfect for the Patriots’ new run-first approach. But this is a brutal opening season matchup against virtually the same Eagles team that won the NFC last year. And even if Stevenson does get going, I have a hunch New England will turn to new RB2 Ezekiel Elliott near the goal line.
TE Darren Waller, New York Giants (vs. Dallas Cowboys)
Dallas was the third-stingiest defense in fantasy against tight ends last year. It now has former Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore in the mix. Meanwhile, Waller has started a total of 17 games over the last two seasons. I don’t care if Brian Daboll is an actual wizard. He and Big Blue will be sorely disappointed by how they can use their new big tight end.
RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (at New Orleans Saints)
I know what you’re thinking: Gasp! Blasphemy! How dare you! But this isn’t the same Henry we’re used to watching plow over defenders in the open field. This is a 29-year-old tailback with nearly 1,900 career touches of mileage. And he’s facing a Saints defense that was in the top five statistically last year. I’d love to be wrong, but I think we’ve seen the last of a truly elite Henry.
Sleepers
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WR D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay Packers)
The assumption is that Moore will have great chemistry with Justin Fields, but we still have to see it in meaningful action. What we do know is that Moore has caught 15 passes for 251 yards in two career games against the Packers — much of which occurred against current Green Bay CB1 Jaire Alexander. In a game filled with explosive talents, Moore might shine the brightest.
QB Sam Howell, Washington Commanders (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
Get used to this theme all season. Anyone playing the Cardinals’ defense will be a reasonable play. We don’t know what to expect from Howell. We don’t know if he’s even any good. But I feel very confident he can cut up a glorified FBS team masquerading as an NFL squad.
RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
Williams was poised for a breakout season last fall before tearing his ACL. This year, he remains the featured back of a Broncos offense that will undoubtedly lean more on the run to take pressure off of Russell Wilson. Las Vegas had a mediocre rushing defense in 2022 and did little to improve it this offseason. Expect a healthy dose of Williams all afternoon.
WR Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills (at New York Jets)
Look, the Bills still don’t have a true No. 2 pass target outside of Stefon Diggs. Someone has to step up, almost by default. Make that Davis, who has the speed and big-play ability to take the top off a stingy Jets defense that will key in on Josh Allen and Co.
