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Fantasy football draft strategy: How to approach each first-round pick

The other day, I watched a group of friends at an outdoor space I was at pulling numbers out of a hat. It turned out they were picking a fantasy football draft order.

When a friend of mine informed them that I wrote about fantasy football, the guy who secured the No. 2 selection turned to me and said, “Dalvin Cook, right?”

And thus, this post was born.

Let’s break down each of the first-round picks you might have as a guide to what you should do with them in the first three rounds. After that? Things can be very different in each draft, so you’re on your own.

First pick

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Don’t be that person at the draft who waits the full minute and thirty seconds or whatever and thinks it over, only to take the obvious No. 1 overall pick in Christian McCaffrey. As soon as the draft starts, take him and move on.

After that, though? I’m thinking of this as a 12-team draft, so the next picks you get are No. 24 and 25. By then, a bunch of good RBs are gone, and Travis Kelce is on another team.

I don’t love some of the of those mid-tier RBs, and your fourth- and fifth-rounders are far away. So I’m pretty sure I’d take a wide receiver here like Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown or Keenan Allen … and then it becomes a question of what you like to do. Do you believe David Montgomery will continue what he did at the end of last year? Do you think Miles Sanders will emerge from a large pack of Eagles RBs?

Or: Do you take a second WR and not worry about the position for a looooong time?

Here’s the route I’m strongly considering: George Kittle and Darren Waller might be right there. With wide receiver deep as usual, you can find a WR2 later. You can’t find a top TE talent then.

Second pick

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To answer your question, I nodded to the guy with the No. 2 pick who asked about drafting Cook. Among the rare all-around backs with heavy volume, he’s a stud.

It’s a similar approach as I outlined above with picks 23 and 26, except you might want to think about the person who’s about to go back-to-back in front of you. If there’s a player you absolutely want here, grab him instead of gambling with that third-round pick.

This is a spot where, if you like Clyde Edwards-Helaire this year (I do!) and he’s available, I’d go for him for an RB-RB combo, then go receiver or tight end with my third-round pick.

Third pick

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Sigh. OK. So I’m not a big Derrick Henry guy this year. But I get it: Henry will continue to be the focal point of the Titans’ offense and he’s probably going to get fed the ball in the red zone a ton. As long as he stays healthy (I’m worried there’s wear and tear from so many carries in the past two years there but that’s me), he could be the exact player to take here.

But you could also take Alvin Kamara in PPR, or if you REALLY believe Nick Chubb explodes on the ground, you could go that route.

At 22 and 27? Hey maybe Joe Mixon is there and then it’s WR or TE for me.

Fourth pick

(AP Photo/Rich Schultz)

There are some people who think Ezekiel Elliott could rebound this year so this is the range I’d consider him in. But this is where it depends on who’s left from the top-three picks. Kamara, Chubb, Henry or Elliott are all fine selections.

Same deal as above with 21 and 28. I’d like to emerge with a wide receiver or two, or a tight end if all the good RBs are gone.

Fifth pick

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I’m going to be boring here until we get a little lower: Who do you like at RB here and who’s left? Zeke, Chubb, etc could be in the running.

Nos. 20 gives you a shot at one of the really good wide receivers. I would expect a lot of drafters to focus on RB-RB in the first two rounds, leaving you with a shot at any one of, say, Calvin Ridley, D.K. Metcalf or DeAndre Hopkins. That temptation is too much for me to pass up.

At 29, you could fill out your second RB position or grab one of those tight ends. But if you’ve gone RB-WR, I’m probably not doing a second WR here.

Sixth pick

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Zeke? If he’s here, then yeah, that’s my pick.

But we’re about to hit a drop-off. I have my worries about Saquon Barkley and how the Giants might start him slow. I wonder if Jonathan Taylor will be good with the Colts’ offensive line injuries. We’ll get to that in a sec.

Then you get 19 and 30, and with that second-rounder, we’re on the fringe of that moment when one running back or stud receiver drops right in your lap and you cackle out loud like a cartoon villain and hit “DRAFT” (you know you do that, right?).

I’d be more than happy with Antonio Gibson or D.K. Metcalf if they fall there. And at 30? There is a lot of WR talent to like including, perhaps, Terry McLaurin, Allen Robinson, or CeeDee Lamb.

Seventh pick

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Deep breaths here.

This is where I take that full minute and thirty seconds or whatever. I ignore the shouts of “Pick already!” and focus. Because this might be the trickiest spot, depending on your league format. In PPR, I’m going to probably lean toward Davante Adams or Travis Kelce as the pick and go running back in Round 2.

Heck, Adams might be the pick in non-PPR or half-PPR! But if you can stomach the risk of Barkley starting slow or hoping Taylor is still the bellcow in Indy, you could do that.

At least with 18, you could take an RB2 with RB1 upside if someone like Austin Ekeler, Antonio Gibson or Najee Harris is there. And as you can see I love the group of WRs in the 31 spot.

Eighth pick

(AP Photo/Tony Avelar)

Let’s have a talk about Travis Kelce, who no longer sports facial hair.

He’s the surest thing at an unsure position, a guy who outscored Darren Waller by nearly 40 fantasy points last year and was the only dude to average 20-plus points per game in 2021 at the position.

That means, if he repeats that, Kelce could give you an extra NINE points a game or so more than, say, the fifth- or sixth-best tight end in fantasy.

So, uh, yeah you see where this is going. But if you want to go with an RB (maybe Aaron Jones) or WRs Davante Adams or Tyreek Hill here? I wouldn’t hate that.

Because at 17, I’m pretty sure at least one possible RB1-type will be there for the taking. If you go WR-RB in Rounds 1 and 2, there are a lot of stellar second receivers to go with in the third. After that? Time to search for your RB2 by throwing darts at some hidden gems.

Ninth pick

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This is still the Kelce Zone if he’s still there. But that group I mentioned with Jones, Adams, Hill, even Jonathan Taylor if he’s dropped — that’s a great place to be so you can swoop in at 16 for, say, Najee Harris.

Ideally, I’d say I’d go RB-RB then, focusing on who’s around at receiver with No. 33, which could be Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, or Terry McLaurin. I kind of love the hypothetical team I’ve just put together so far.

10th pick

(AP Photo/Kelvin Kuo)

Non-PPR? It’s probably one of the top receivers.

PPR? This is about the time I start queuing up Austin Ekeler, or if Nick Chubb has dropped since he’s not as much of a pass-catcher. Heck, I’d even starting thinking about Najee Harris, who will probably be on the field A LOT for the Steelers.

Let’s say it’s Ekeler here. The world is your oyster — at No. 15 you could go with a top receiver or another great RB (Antonio Gibson!). You will NOT see me advocating anywhere here to draft Patrick Mahomes in the top rounds.

Either way, you end up with the versatility at No. 34 to go with another receiver or a top tight end if one has dropped.

11th pick

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Yeah, it’s probably Hill, Jones or Kelce if he’s still there. And at 14? You could go with another RB or your first running back of the day.

That means you’re getting a fringe WR1 at 35, and that’s a pretty great place to be in if you go RB-RB.

12th pick

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This is the “whoever dropped from the top 10, go get ’em” pick. I’d think about Ekeler here no matter what format you have, Harris might be good for me here, and I’m really thinking about Stefon Diggs at this spot.

With that second back-to-back pick, you can probably go with another running back. That means with the third- and fourth-rounders you could easily go WR-WR and have a STACKED roster.

See live draft results and grades at the 2024 USA TODAY NFL Draft Hub.

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