Deshaun Watson appears to be furious with the Houston Texans — so angry that he would consider sitting out in 2021, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Their deteriorating relationship has quickly become one of the most fascinating offseason storylines. And, yes, that relationship is complicated.
Most recently, owner Cal McNair failed to fulfill a promise he reportedly made to involve Watson in the hiring processes for the team’s head coaching and general manager vacancies. That snub seemed to dredge up a number of problems Watson had with the organization.
Maybe the Texans can make amends. Maybe McNair can apologize. Maybe recently-hired general manger Nick Caserio and the yet-to-be-hired new head coach can convince Watson that their priorities align with his.
Maybe.
Maybe not. Then what?
We’ve covered the tremendously long odds of the Texans executing a trade involving Watson. Caserio and Houston would have to be insane to get rid of a quarterback who could end up in the Hall of Fame, even if Watson’s relationship with the Texans is crumbling. It seems, however, that Watson could put the Texans in a spot where they don’t have a choice.
How did we get here?
1
Does Watson have a problem with Caserio?
After the hire, Watson tweeted (then deleted): “some things never change….” After that tweet, NFL Network’s Ian Rapooport indicated Watson is most displeased with how Caserio got hired, not that he is the hire. So maybe there’s nothing wrong with Caserio — and more a problem with the Texans.
It’s pretty unusual for an owner to involve a player, even a franchise quarterback, in a decision like this. Owners make hires — for better or for worse. Quarterbacks play under that hire — for better or for worse. McNair didn’t have to make the promise to involve Watson. But then McNair disregarded it, which was even more foolish. Rebuilding the relationship will be a challenge.
Especially because McNair hired a GM with close ties to the Patriots dynasty — just like former coach/GM Bill O’Brien and the controversial Jack Easterby, who was portrayed by Sports Illustrated as an agent of chaos within the Texans organization.
Texans players sure seemed relieved when O’Brien was fired earlier this year. So turning to Caserio — who the Texans tried to hire to pair with O’Brien previously — doesn’t feel at all like a clean slate. It feels like a second attempt to follow the Patriots blueprint. Some things never do change.
2
Is there something deeper at play here, though?
Watson is “still angry about team’s insensitivity to social justice, including hiring practices, after the franchise failed to interview Chiefs OC Eric Bienemy this past week,” per ESPN’s Chris Mortenson. Not long after tweeting that, Mortenson clarified: “Watson’s unhappiness with Texans is not strongly connected to social justice issues, a source close to the quarterback clarifies, even though those issues are important. His unhappiness is more current with state of franchise and what has transpired.”
So … it’s clearly complicated.
Per ESPN, the Texans were strongly considering Pittsburgh Steelers vice president of football and business administration Omar Khan, who is of Honduran and Indian descent. The other finalist selected by a search firm McNair paid handsomely was Monday Night Football analyst Louis Riddick, who is black.
So Watson was upset to learn (through social media) that the Texans would instead hire Caserio.
Beyond that, the Texans’ ownership group has a problematic history with racial issues. In a private meeting, Cal’s father, Bob McNair, reportedly reacted to players kneeling during the national anthem in protest to social inequality by saying, “We can’t have the inmates running the prison.”
Watson, meanwhile, has been an important voice in the social justice movement, which gained more momentum following the tragic death of George Floyd this summer.
3
Why did the Texans make the surprising decision to hire Caserio?
Caserio, previously the New England Patriots director of personnel, and the Texans had conversations in 2018 about bringing him aboard as general manager. But that led to tampering chargers from the Patriots, which led the Texans to back away.
Obviously, Caserio charmed McNair, who ultimately opted to make the hire this time around. It probably helped that Easterby, Caserio’s buddy, was still in the building to provide a positive recommendation.
4
What other problems have arisen between Watson and the Texans?
Watson also has reason for frustration when it comes to player personnel. The Texans traded away one of the best receivers in the NFL, DeAndre Hopkins, this offseason. That wasn’t exactly an olive branch from Houston. To complicate matters more, receiver Will Fuller, another one of Watson’s favorite targets, is set to enter free agency this offseason.
5
How can Watson respond?
He’s got a few options.
- He can play for whatever coach Caserio hires. Caserio has already said Easterby won’t have a say in personnel issues, and he’s clearly going to want to chart his own path and show he’s his own man and not just another Belichick echo. Maybe Casario can do enough to assuage Watson’s concerns.
- He can demand a trade. His camp can leak the news that he wants out — or Watson could take to social media to do it himself.
- He can sit out 2021. He has considered this option, per ESPN.
6
Where could the Texans trade him and what could they expect in return?
With the Fahrenheit rising, the Texans could consider seeing what they can get in return for Watson, a player who is probably worth at least five first-round picks. The problem with that value is that teams can only trade draft picks three years into the future, per NFL rules. So teams would need to include 1) active players and/or 2) a first-round draft pick they acquired from another team.
Lucky for Houston, there are a few such teams: the Miami Dolphins and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jaguars are in the market for a quarterback, but they’re likely to draft Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence with the No. 1 overall pick. It’s unlikely — though I guess technically possible — that the Jaguars could package that No. 1 pick to get Watson; Lawrence is the most heralded QB prospect since Andrew Luck, but there’s a very good chance he’s never as good as Watson.
Miami, meanwhile, could be in the market for a quarterback. They have, of all things, the Texans’ first-round pick (third-overall) in the 2021 NFL Draft. The Dolphins also have quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, the 2020 fifth-overall pick, whose start in the NFL has was … inconsistent. Maybe he has some value as a throw in. Watson would consider a trade to the Dolphins, per ESPN.
Sources say Watson could play hardball with Texans about a trade. His new $156 million contract includes a no-trade clause but informed speculation from a source is that he would consider the @MiamiDolphins in which Tua Tagovailoa and additional compensation goes to Houston.
— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) January 10, 2021
Another team that’s worth consideration? The San Francisco 49ers. They have quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who Caserio drafted in New England. That said, draft capital could be a problem for San Francisco. Garoppolo, with a major contract and middling play, isn’t necessarily value added.
Had a few execs text me a siimilar trade concept regarding Texans should the situation with Watson go nuclear: Jimmy G plus several high picks for Watson. Caserio/Jimmy reunion. Gets Watson out of the AFC kinda like how Belichick wouldn't trade Jimmy within the AFC.
— Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) January 10, 2021
7
So what actually happens next?
It’s obviously impossible to say.
It’s going to be very difficult for the Texans to get equal value in a trade, so Watson has to make life extremely difficult for Houston if he really wants out.
But that’s clearly what has started: Watson is leveraging and angling and pushing. He’s doing all the right things to make a blockbuster trade happen, if that’s ultimately what he wants.
That said, the Texans can do all the right things to reverse course by speaking with Watson and genuinely listening to him. It’s still more likely that things cool down and Watson stays in Houston. But as these reports grow more ominous for the Texans, the plausibility of a trade increases.
