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College football picks against the spread, Week 8: Ohio State-Penn State, Tennessee-Alabama and more

Last week across the college football world was epic.

We saw USC’s undefeated season (and likely Caleb William’s repeat Heisman campaign) come crashing down, Washington topped Oregon in a heated Pac-12 race and, oh yeah, Colorado blew a 29-point halftime lead at home to Stanford.

We’re midway through the year and the chaos is beginning to bubble up. Four more ranked matchups this weekend should only add to the drama.

Let’s make some picks!

Name Last Week YTD
Caroline Darney 6-3-1  39-34-3
Blake Schuster 4-5-1 38-35-3
Christian D’Andrea 6-3-1 32-41-3
Matt Scalici 6-3-1 30-35-1
Prince Grimes 1-8-1 30-43-3
Tyler Nettuno 5-4-1 29-44-3
Mitchell Northam 5-4-1 28-39-3
Michelle Martinelli 4-5-1 20-33-3

No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Penn State, Saturday, Noon ET on Fox

Opening Line: Ohio State -4.5

Schuster: Penn State +4.5

I’ll take the points, but I’m betting on the Nittany Lions outright here.

Scalici: Ohio State -4.5

I don’t want to be that hater that James Franklin always talks about in press conferences who says he can’t win “the big one” but I am, in fact, very much that hater.

D’Andrea: Penn State +4.5

This covers me for a Nittany Lions win or, much more importantly, a heartbreaking loss.

Martinelli: Penn State +4.5

This is the Nittany Lions’ moment to try to seize control over the Big Ten, especially against a largely one-dimensional Ohio State offense. In Happy Valley would be a different story, but on the road in Columbus with Penn State’s first real test of the season, this game could be a coin toss, but I can so easily see a 17-14 or 20-17 final, regardless of who wins.

Nettuno: Ohio State -4.5

I’d love to pick Penn State here, but I just don’t have enough confidence in this offense right now against a Buckeyes team that’s elite defensively. I’ll take Ohio State in Columbus.

Grimes: Penn State +4.5

They say styles make fights and well I like how Penn State’s style matches up against the Buckeyes.

Darney: Penn State +4.5

I feel like the Nittany Lions are a really good team that no one is really talking about? My biggest hesitation here is Ohio State being the home team, but I’m sticking with my gut.

Northam: Penn State +4.5

This just feels like one of those years where the Nittany Lions — coming off a bye week — do the thing against the Buckeyes.

Navy vs. No. 22 Air Force, Saturday, Noon ET on CBS

Opening Line: Air Force -10.5

Schuster: Navy +10.5

This isn’t just me sticking with the system play of taking any service academy as a two-score underdog. It’s me wondering if Air Force’s offense will run as smooth with their backup QB starting on the road in a rivalry game.

Scalici: Air Force -10.5

This Air Force defense continues to be one of the unheralded stories of the year in college football

D’Andrea: Air Force -10.5

The Falcons are a machine right now. Navy is as well, but it’s more of a vending machine filled with stale Combos and mouthwash.

Martinelli: Navy +10.5

Air Force is probably the best Group of Five team this season, and so much of it is thanks to its No. 3 defense, which is giving up just 240.0 yards per game, along with 14.7 points. But you never know what can happen in service academy games. Air Force remains undefeated, but Navy covers.

Nettuno: Air Force -10.5

Backup QB aside, Navy is not a very good team while Air Force could be the top squad in the Group of Five. This is a hyperefficient offense with a stifling defense, and Navy isn’ going to be ready for it.

Grimes: Navy +10.5

This would have been a no-brainer before Air Force’s QB injury. Now, I have absolutely no clue, so I’ll just take the home team playing a short 25 minute drive from my abode.

Darney: Air Force -10.5

I know the Falcons are out their QB, but I just think they’re too much of a machine right now for Navy to keep it much closer than two touchdowns. Fly Navy, though.

Northam: Navy +10.5

I do think Air Force is probably the best Group of Five team this season, but this game is almost always close and the Mids should be motivated to not lose to the Falcons for a fourth straight time.

No. 6 Oklahoma vs. UCF, Saturday, Noon ET on ABC

Opening Line: Oklahoma -19.5

Schuster: Oklahoma -18.5

Hang on a second, UCF gives up 55 to a Kansas team without Jalon Daniels and now they expect to stay within three scores at Oklahoma? Ok, yeah. Sure.

Scalici: UCF +18.5

The Knights have been wildly up and down this season and I say it’s time for another up, right when you least expect it. The Gus Malzahn Way.

D’Andrea: UCF +18.5

Central Florida’s competence should carry it through. To at least a respectable loss.

Martinelli: UCF +18.5

On paper, these look like two high-powered offenses that are just going to trade touchdowns. And they probably will, but Oklahoma will come out on top. By a lot. Just not by 19 points.

Nettuno: Oklahoma -18.5

It’s been a tough start to Big 12 play for the Knights, and things don’t get much easier against an Oklahoma team that’s fundamentally sound on both sides of the ball.

Grimes: Oklahoma -18.5

UCF’s defense has been disgusting the last few weeks, so I’m expecting Dillon Gabriel to hang close to 50 on them.

Darney: UCF +18.5

That’s just a lot of points. Oklahoma wins, but I feel like it’s going to be closer?

Northam: Oklahoma -18.5

Yes, this is a lot of points, but the Sooners seem capable of winning by three touchdowns against a team that hasn’t really impressed during its first year in the Big 12.

No. 9 Oregon vs. Washington State, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. on ABC

Opening Line: Oregon -14

Schuster: Washington State +20

This is a tough game for Oregon right after such an emotional loss at Washington. I think the Ducks win, but I can’t turn down the points.

Scalici: Oregon -20

The Ducks are in a vulnerable place here after last week’s slugfest but Wazzu might be coming off an even more deflating loss.

D’Andrea: Washington State +20

I know Wazzu just got thoroughly and utterly embarrassed. I just cannot stay away from this many points and Cam Ward.

Martinelli: Washington State +20

I’m not sure who’s coming off a worse loss: Oregon’s last-second heartbreaker to Washington or Washington State’s 38-point disaster against Arizona. But even with that blowout loss, a 20-point spread is an awful lot, especially with Cam Ward slinging it. Ducks on top though.

Nettuno: Washington State +20

I don’t have much confidence in this Wazzu team right now, especially against an Oregon team that could have easily knocked off Washington on the road last week. The Cougars have some issues, but this is just too big a spread, even in Eugene.

Grimes: Oregon -20

The Ducks are undefeated ATS and Wazzu can’t score.

Darney: Oregon -20

Man, I feel for Washington State having to go to Autzen and face a Ducks squad that feels like they let a huge win slip away at Washington.

Northam: Oregon -20

I have no idea what to do here. I would flag this as a “stay-away” game. But I have to make a pick, so I’ll ride with a motivated Ducks team at home.

No. 11 Alabama vs. No. 17 Tennessee, Saturday, 3:30 ET on CBS

Opening Line: Alabama -9.5

Schuster: Alabama -8.5

I have zero feel on this line except for the fact that it’ll probably be decided extremely late in the game.

Scalici: Tennessee +8.5

There may not be two defenses playing better football in America right now than these two, a wild swing from last year’s nonstop scoring fest. I think Alabama wins by a razor-thin margin.

D’Andrea: Alabama -8.5

Homefield advantage and the fact Joe Milton is a random event generator at quarterback.

Martinelli: Alabama -8.5

Crimson Tide. At home. Avenging last year’s loss. And it’s not close.

Nettuno: Alabama -8.5

Tennessee is simply not built to replicate last season’s offensive performance, especially against this defense on the road in Tuscaloosa.

Grimes: Tennessee +8.5

The Vols will pound the ball on the ground and eat away at the clock to limit possessions and keep this thing within one score.

Darney: Alabama -8.5

A 10-point Tide win feels about right here.

Northam: Tennessee +8.5

Alabama will probably win, but this feels like a one score game decided in the final minute.

Auburn vs. No. 13 Ole Miss, Saturday, 7 ET on ESPN

Opening Line:

Schuster: Ole Miss -6.5

Only because I do not want to live in a world where Lane Kiffin loses this game and Auburn/Hugh Freeze get any sort of high ground (real or imagined).

Scalici: Ole Miss -6.5

Going with Ole Miss here in what I expect to be an ugly and low-scoring affair. Emotions will be high, stupid decisions will be made, but ultimately Auburn doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to keep up.

D’Andrea: Ole Miss -6.5

This may be the first Auburn team I can remember with zero identity whatsoever. Who are they, aside from, uh, Auburn?

Martinelli: Auburn +6.5

This game has messy disaster written all over it, and I love it. But Ole Miss winning by a touchdown seems like a lot to ask, even with Ole Miss’ 11th-ranked offense against Auburn’s… whatever that is. The Tigers have burned me all season, but I can’t help myself.

Nettuno: Ole Miss -6.5

This line feels like a trap, because there’s no reason Ole Miss should even have trouble in this game. Short of some “Auburn Jesus” shenanigans, Ole Miss will keep its SEC West hopes alive with a comfortable win.

Grimes: Ole Miss -6.5

The better team will find a way to get it done on the road.

Darney: Ole Miss -6.5

Lane Kiffin is going to want a win at Auburn more than usual. Plus Ole Miss is (most of the time) good this season and Auburn is not.

Northam: Ole Miss -6.5

Lane has something to prove. He’ll either win in a route, or he’ll mess around and things will backfire in a spectacular way.

No. 4 Florida State vs No. 16 Duke, Saturday, 7:30 p.m. on ABC

Opening Line: Florida State -16.5

Schuster: Duke +13.5

This is strictly a bet on Riley Leonard being able to play, in which case a two-touchdown win feels unlikely for Florida State.

Scalici: Duke +13.5

Mike Elko seems optimistic Riley Leonard could be back for this game. If he is, I think this line is way off.

D’Andrea: Duke +13.5

Yeah what Matt said about Leonard. If he’s out, however (bugs eyes, big exhale).

Martinelli: Duke +13.5

This has nothing to do with the Blue Devils impressive season or whether or not Riley Leonard plays. I still think Florida State is overrated, so it wins but not by two touchdowns.

Nettuno: Duke +13.5

Not having Riley Leonard (or potentially playing a limited version of him) will certainly hurt Duke in this game, and the secondary hasn’t faced a test like this one. I just have a feeling Duke will be game against Florida State.

Grimes: Duke +13.5

FSU is going to win but this is way too many points against a defense as good as Duke’s.

Darney: Duke +13.5

Not only am I taking Duke and the points, I think the Blue Devils could win (as long as Riley is back).

Northam: Duke +13.5

Duke’s defense is legit good. This is too many points.

No. 18 USC vs. No. 14 USC, Saturday, 8 p.m. ET on Fox

Opening Line: USC -8

Schuster: Utah +7

I simply do not have any faith in USC to pull itself together after getting exposed by Notre Dame.

Scalici: Utah +7

Last week showed this USC team isn’t just fundamentally flawed from a talent perspective but might also have pretty bad chemistry as a team. Utah should be licking their chops.

D’Andrea: Utah +7

Utah’s D should put it in place to at least cover and potentially win this one.

Martinelli: Utah +7

This has to be a low moment for USC, and while the Trojans’ offense may pull it back together this week, their defense just isn’t good. At least Utah’s D exists, and it should show up enough to keep this game close.

Nettuno: USC -7

I realize I could be setting myself up for failure here with the way this game played out twice last year, but I don’t see Utah replicating that without Cam Rising. I also don’t expect Caleb Williams to turn in two disappointing outings in a row.

Grimes: USC -7

I’m not really sure what to do with this line, but I could see the home team notching the front-door cover late.

Darney: Utah +7

One of these teams has a defense. It’s not USC.

Northam: USC -7

Trojans bounce back at home.

Michigan State vs. No. 2 Michigan, Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC

Opening Line: Michigan -19.5

Schuster: Michigan State +24.5

Rivalry games are weird! Especially considering this is essentially MSU’s Super Bowl and they’re playing at home. I think Michigan wins big, but not that big.

Scalici: Michigan -24.5

Would take the Wolverines here if the spread was 50.

D’Andrea: Michigan -24.5

Oh god.

Martinelli: Michigan -24.5

This spread probably isn’t big enou — WHOAAAA HE HAS TROUBLE WITH THE SNAP AND THE BALL IS FREE! IT’S PICKED UP BY MICHIGAN STATE’S JALEN WATTS-JACKSON, AND HE SCOOOOORES ON THE LAST PLAY OF THE GAME! UNBELIEVABLE!

Nettuno: Michigan -24.5

Why is this on here, Blake? I will not watch a second of this game live.

Grimes: Michigan -24.5

I’m sure Michigan will relish the opportunity to mudstomp the Spartans at their place on national TV.

Darney: Michigan State +24.5

Is Michigan 25 points better than MSU? Yes. Does it feel like these games get unnecessarily weird? Also yes.

Northam: Michigan -24.5

This one will be over quickly.

No. 19 LSU vs. Army, Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network

Opening Line: LSU -26.5

Schuster: Army +30.5

Oddsmakers with a serious lack of respect for the troops with this line. LSU wins, but it won’t be by 31.

Scalici: LSU -30.5

Brian Kelly will let this offense do whatever it wants as he tries to build their confidence back up before the Bama game.

D’Andrea: LSU -30.5

This isn’t one of Army’s better teams, and if Wake could win by 35 against them last year, well…

Martinelli: Army +30.5

This spread is way too big. Army neither has the best offense or defense (on paper), but it knows how to drain the clock. Although LSU is starting to look like the team many of us expected this year, it won’t have time to win by more than four touchdowns if the Black Knights drag out their drives.

Nettuno: LSU -30.5

Yeah, this spread is big, but I picked LSU to win 52-10, so I am undeterred. I’ll use the rest of my words as a PSA: If you haven’t watched this LSU offense yet, please do it. The Tigers have something very special going on right now.

Grimes: Army +30.5

LSU is going to get really close to this line but with how much clock these teams eat, I’ll take the points.

Darney: Army +30.5

I honestly don’t think LSU will have enough time of possession in this game to outscore Army by 4+ touchdowns. Tigers still win comfortably, though.

Northam: Army +30.5

I know the Black Knights just got shut out at home by Troy, but I don’t think that happens to a Jeff Monken-coached team two weeks in a row. Army will put up a good fight.

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