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College football picks against the spread, Week 11: Ole Miss-Georgia, Michigan-Penn State and more

Finally, after 11 weeks, Michigan football will have to play a real opponent.

This is the moment college fans have been waiting on long before Connor Stalions became a household name. The No. 3 Wolverines have blown out every opponent they’ve faced so far, but their strength of schedule ranks 111th out of 133 FBS teams. Their strength of schedule remaining ranks eighth in the FBS.

Up first is a trip to No. 10 Penn State where the Nittany Lions are 4.5-point home underdogs. Let’s see which of our panelists were brave enough to fade Michigan as we work our way through the biggest games of the week.

Name Last Week YTD
Blake Schuster 5-4-1 54-48-4
Caroline Darney 4-5-1 53-49-4
Christian D’Andrea 4-5-1 49-53-4
Matt Scalici 4-5-1 48-46-2
Tyler Nettuno 3-6-1 45-5 7-4
Prince Grimes 5-4-1 44-58-4
Mitchell Northam 6-3-1 44-52-4
Michelle Martinelli 8-1-1 40-42-4

No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 3 Michigan

Opening Line: Michigan -2.5

Schuster: Penn State +4.5

I’ve been calling Michigan frauds all year long for their weak schedule. Time to put my money where my mouth is. Don’t let me down, James Franklin.

Scalici: Michigan -4.5

Penn State continues to prove at every opportunity that they don’t have what it takes to win the biggest games on the biggest stages under James Franklin. Michigan has not been challenged much this season but I don’t trust Penn State when the stakes are this high.

D’Andrea: Michigan -4.5

Look, I don’t like it any more than you do. But Michigan with a chip on its shoulder is a problem, and I would have taken the Wolverines even if they’d been given deferential respect all week instead of seeing their fans vaguely threaten reporters and float Ryan Day conspiracy theories.

Martinelli: Michigan -4.5

These are the top-2 FBS defenses going up against each other, but a major difference is Penn State has faced a similar challenge against Ohio State (despite losing), while Michigan has played nobody notable. The Nittany Lions might confound the Wolverines at first, but Michigan probably wins this by a touchdown.

Nettuno: Michigan -4.5

We’re going to learn a lot about the Wolverines in this one, especially its unproven offense against a very good Penn State defense. I just don’t trust the Nittany Lions enough, even coming off Drew Allar’s best game.

Grimes: Michigan -4.5

Michigan plays an extra focused brand of football away from The Big House, with a 3-0 record ATS on the road.

Darney: Penn State +4.5

Nothing my lovely coworkers here have said is incorrect, but we can’t all pick the same in a top-10 matchup with everything Michigan has going on. Now’s your chance, James Franklin!

Northam: Michigan -4.5

The Wolverines have a vacuum-cleaner-business-sized chip on their shoulder, and Penn State burned me the last time I picked them to cover against a Big Ten power.

Colorado vs. No. 21 Arizona

Opening Line: Arizona -6

Schuster: Arizona -10.5

Not in love with this pick, but the vibes in Boulder are pretty brutal right now as it looks like the Buffs may end up missing out on a bowl game after all.

Scalici: Arizona -10.5

Tough to pull this off on the road but I think Colorado has hit a rough patch here and I don’t see them getting everyone on the same page again quickly enough.

D’Andrea: Colorado +10.5

Jedd Fisch is doing incredible work but I feel like the Buffaloes are venturing back into “no one believes” territory, where they excel. Also, this is a lot of points to lay on the road!

Martinelli: Colorado +10.5

Arizona seems to be improving every week and is riding high. The Wildcats will extend their win streak to four games, but the Buffs, who are fighting for a bowl game now, will keep this one closer than the spread.

Nettuno: Colorado +10.5

This may seem crazy, but Colorado hasn’t really been blown out by anyone except Oregon. Arizona is playing really good football, but I think it could find itself in a scary situation on the road.

Grimes: Arizona -10.5

Colorado’s offense hasn’t scored 20 points in consecutive weeks now, and Arizona’s defense isn’t bad. So that trend could continue.

Darney: Arizona -10.5

The offensive changes for Colorado are enough for me to go with the Wildcats.

Northam: Colorado +10.5 

Just hard for me to see the Buffs losing by two possessions in a home game that they really need to win if they want to go bowling.

No. 4 Florida State vs. Miami (FL)

Opening Line: Florida State -15

Schuster: Miami +14.5

After that Florida State game against Pitt(!), I’ll be the one who bets on chaos reigning in another rivalry game.

Scalici: Florida State -14.5

The ACC has been an all-you-can-eat buffet for Florida State this year and Miami is the next item on the plate.

D’Andrea: Florida State -14.5

I want the Hurricanes to win and inject the ACC with chaos. I do not *expect* them to.

Martinelli: Miami +14.5

The Hurricanes are struggling big time, as quarterback Tyler Van Dyke is tied for third-most interceptions thrown this season at 11. But I’m still not convinced Florida State is as good as some of the other top teams, so if Pitt can keep it to a 17-point loss, Miami can cover here.

Nettuno: Miami +14.5

Look, I don’t know what to make of the Hurricanes’ struggles, but this is a rivalry game and I still think the defense is pretty good. They won’t get completely embarrassed.

Grimes: Florida State -14.5

Ignore the records. FSU will be fired up to stomp Miami.

Darney: Florida State -14.5

I don’t know if I’m the one here that has watched the most ACC, but Miami is STRUGGLING. They were outplayed by Virginia but squeaked one out in OT, so at least they aren’t going into this on a three-game skid. Tyler Van Dyke is not trustworthy right now, and the offense just isn’t consistent enough to keep up with Jordan Travis and FSU.

Northam: Florida State -14.5

Have you seen Tyler Van Dyke play lately? Miami simply doesn’t have the quarterback play that is required to keep up with FSU.

No. 5 Washington vs. No. 18 Utah

Opening Line: Washington -3.5

Schuster: Washington -9.5

The playoff committee has made its feelings on Washington extremely clear: Start making statements or miss out on the dance.

Scalici: Utah +9.5

I don’t know if Utah wins this game outright but Washington has been playing down to its opponents since the Oregon win. Nothing looks easy for the Huskies right now.

D’Andrea: Washington -9.5

I feel like we were robbed of a special Utah team thanks to Cam Rising’s injury. Brutal.

Martinelli: Utah +9.5

Washington’s playoff hopes and Michael Penix Jr.’s Heisman Trophy campaign could use a dominant victory over a ranked opponent, and this home game could be it. But this Utah team is pesky and could be yet another problem for the undefeated Huskies. Utah should be able to keep it close, but even as I’m writing this, I’m talking myself out of the pick.

Nettuno: Utah +9.5

This one feels dangerous, given the way Washington is built and has played recently. I can’t trust this Utah offense quite enough to pick it outright, but I have a feeling this is going to be a dogfight.

Grimes: Washington -9.5

I lean towards the home side in this one, and it probably helps that the Huskies got snubbed by the CFP committee again.

Darney: Washington -9.5

If this was away, I’d take the points for Utah. The Huskies have been so solid.

Northam: Utah +9.5

It’s been a while since Washington truly blew an opponent out. You’d have to go back to the Huskies’ September win over Cal. They’ve been playing down to their opponents a bit, while Utah seems to always play up.

No. 14 Missouri vs. No. 13 Tennessee

Opening Line: Tennessee -1

Schuster: Tennessee -1.5

It’s time for the annual head scratching loss in Missouri. The Vols can handle this Tigers team.

Scalici: Missouri +1.5

I was really impressed with Missouri a week ago, particularly on defense. There’s a lot of skill mismatch here but I’m going with the home team.

D’Andrea: Tennessee -1.5

Missouri is very good but I still cannot trust a head coach who looks like the youth pastor no one respects at your local church.

Martinelli: Missouri +1.5

Really could go either way here, and I have a feeling Tennessee wins. But Mizzou gets my benefit of the doubt at home after an impressive outing against Georgia last weekend. Plus, this could be a little trap for the Vols if they’re already looking ahead to the Bulldogs next week.

Nettuno: Tennessee -1.5

The Volunteers aren’t as explosive on offense in 2023, but this team has taken strides elsewhere. I like Missouri, but Tennessee feels more complete right now.

Grimes: Tennessee -1.5

Tennessee’s defense is a little better and they’ll be able to control the game on the ground a little better.

Darney: Tennessee -1.5

This one was difficult, but going with the away team here.

Northam: Missouri +1.5

Do I believe in Eli Drinkwitz? Maybe.

No. 22 Iowa vs. Rutgers

Opening Line: Iowa -4

Schuster: Iowa -4

Rutgers is going bowling and there’s plenty to be excited about in New Jersey. But an offense that ranks 126th in passing and 34th in rushing going into Iowa and winning is still a big ask against the Hawkeyes’ defense.

Scalici: Rutgers +4

I liked what I saw out of Rutgers last week. They’re figuring some things out at the right time for this game.

D’Andrea: Rutgers +4

You know what? Greg Schiano is having a nice little year and it’s about time for the Hawkeyes to let us down again.

Martinelli: Rutgers +4

This isn’t your typical Rutgers team, and the Scarlet Knights are having a solid year. They might not beat Iowa, but this game screams 12-9, 15-13 — something low and weird like that.

Nettuno: Rutgers +4

The Scarlet Knights could definitely win this game, but regardless, it seems more likely than not the final score is 10-7 or something similar.

Grimes: Rutgers +4

Wait, Greg Schiano is still coaching Rutgers?

Darney: Rutgers +4

Let’s get weird!

Northam: Iowa -4

I’m zagging here. Rutgers looks improved, yes, but are they really prepared to get dragged down into the mud with the Hawkeyes?

No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 9 Ole Miss

Opening Line: Georgia -19.5

Schuster: Ole Miss +10.5

I am absolutely kicking myself for not grabbing this line sooner. Ole Miss may not win this game, but it will scare Georgia on what’s expected to be a rainy and windy day in Athens.

Scalici: Georgia -10.5

Ole Miss laid an egg the last time they faced an elite defense on the road this season. I think Kirby shuts them down.

D’Andrea: Georgia -10.5

The Bulldogs are still looking for a statement win. This seems like a good place for one.

Martinelli: Georgia -10.5

With the original line, I would have taken Ole Miss, easy. But now, Ole Miss is too chaotic, and Georgia’s top-10 offense and defense are too tough to pick against.

Nettuno: Georgia -10.5

I think Ole Miss is built similarly to Missouri, and I don’t think Kirby Smart will allow his team to struggle against the run two weeks in a row.

Grimes: Ole Miss +10.5

Missouri just played the Bulldogs close, and I believe Ole Miss can too. Don’t let me down Lane!

Darney: Ole Miss +10.5

And you know what? I’m going to pick the fighting Juice Kiffins to win!

Northam: Ole Miss +10.5

I think Lane Kiffin is going to have some tricks up his sleeve. Also, UGA is 3-6 against the spread this year.

No. 24 North Carolina vs. Duke

Opening Line: North Carolina -9.5

Schuster: Duke +14

Taking the points here is a no-brainer. That’s just way too much to lay in a rivalry game.

Scalici: Duke +14

UNC’s season went off the rails starting with the UVA loss and beating up on a cupcake last week doesn’t change that.

D’Andrea: Duke +14.

Yeah right like I’m gonna trust late-season UNC, especially in a rivalry game.

Martinelli: North Carolina -14

This line feels insulting to the Blue Devils, but they’re having some serious quarterback issues with Riley Leonard hurt again. Drake Maye and the Tar Heels’ No. 3 offense should be able to win this by a few scores.

Nettuno: Duke +14

This line is just absurd, given how bad this UNC defense is. I could probably play QB for Duke and keep it within two touchdowns.

Grimes: North Carolina -14

I don’t feel great about it, but Duke’s offense is a mess right now.

Darney: Duke +14

I think UNC still wins it, but this feels closer to the original line to me.

Northam: Duke +14

It doesn’t seem like Riley Leonard is going to play for the Blue Devils, but man, that defense is so good and this is simply too many points to spot a completely untrustworthy UNC team.

TCU vs. No. 7 Texas

Opening Line: Texas -6

Schuster: TCU +10

The Big 12’s playoff hopes rest solely with Texas — a team that famously excels under intense pressure and high expectations.

Scalici: Texas -10

The pressure is mounting for Texas but TCU does not have the weapons to take advantage of it.

D’Andrea: Texas -10

TCU is not good.

Martinelli: Texas -10

This one shouldn’t be a problem for the Longhorns, who absolutely cannot afford another loss if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. This just isn’t a strong TCU squad.

Nettuno: Texas -10

Just think about the Fiesta Bowl, Frogs fans.

Grimes: Texas -10

TCU is struggling.

Darney: Texas -10

You think I’m picking against Glen Powell?

Northam: Texas -10

Better luck next year, Hypno Toad.

No. 6 Oregon vs. USC

Opening Line: Oregon -6

Schuster: Oregon -15.5

Getting rid of Alex Grinch was a good start, but after the clear emotional letdown for the Trojans last week, it’s hard to see USC bouncing right back. This will be a blowout in Oregon for a Ducks team that needs to impress the playoff committee a bit more.

Scalici: USC +15.5

I’ve been impressed with USC’s offense keeping their poise even as the season has taken a nosedive. The defense couldn’t possibly get any worse without Alex Grinch.

D’Andrea: USC +15.5

That’s a lot of points for a Trojan team capable of keeping up in a track meet.

Martinelli: USC +15.5

The Ducks are in a solid playoff position with only one (good) loss, but they can’t take another. And certainly not to a struggling USC team with a porous defense and too late of a change at defensive coordinator. I expect Caleb Williams to put on a show — and keep it closer than more than two touchdowns — but the Ducks’ defense is too good.

Nettuno: Oregon -15.5

I am very, very afraid of what the Ducks are going to do to USC. This feels like Notre Dame 2.0 with a much better offense on the other side.

Grimes: Oregon -15.5

Does USC even have defensive coordinator right now.

Darney: Oregon -15.5

This is a lot of points but the Oregon defense is good and USC’s is not. There’s only so much Caleb Williams can do.

Northam: USC +15.5

I think Oregon is Playoff-good, but I’m betting on the Trojans’ defense showing a bit of fight this week after the coordinator change.

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