Throughout the PGA Tour season, I use statistical modeling to see how each golfer should fit that week’s course by parsing strokes gained data at a granular level before placing bets on outright winners. We’ll use this same data to identify the best DFS plays and fades, finding the guys who score tons of points that very few other players may decide to roster.
Along the way we’ll let you know when we find some value among prop bets. I’ll be primarily using data and the tools from RickRunGood.com, PGA Tour and Shotlink for this column.
I return after a week off where I spent some time across the pond and catching COVID. I must apologize for missing a week as I would’ve loved to have the whole gang on Jake Knapp (who I hilariously played in my One and Done League, but didn’t bet outright, of course).
However, we move on to the famed Florida Swing and the Cognizant Classic, which has been renamed after decades as the Honda Classic.
This tournament may look quite a bit different than in years past, although PGA National still has water literally everywhere, the fairways have been widened fairly significantly. The par 4 No. 10 has been turned into the third par 5 on the course, making it a Par 71 overall. We’ll dive more into the course later, but definitely something to keep in mind. I don’t expect that we’ll see this course average over par like we’ve seen in the past.
While this tournament hasn’t attracted the best fields historically, there will be some stars out there week — most notably one Rory Daniel McIlroy. Tom Kim and Matthew Fitzpatrick will also be making an appearance this week, so casual golf fans may be able to turn on the television and actually recognize a few names at the top of the leaderboard.
Let’s jump into the course:
The Course: PGA National
(Photo by Stuart Franklin/Getty Images)
The aforementioned tweak to the 10th hole will be the biggest and most important change this week. As a par 4 at 501 yards, the hole averaged 4.16 strokes. While it has been lengthened to accommodate an additional stroke to par, I do expect it will play as the easiest hole on the golf course this week, along with the two other Par 5s, No. 3 and No. 18.
Additionally, players have some reprieve from the constant threat of water hazards off the tee as the fairways have been widened across the entire property. I still think it will play above average in terms of difficulty compared to other Tour courses, but the teeth have been dulled a bit.
This was already a course that favored long hitters over accurate drivers. Accuracy of course matters off the tee insofar as you must keep it out of the water to avoid penalty strokes, but I will be weighting Driving Distance more so than in years past here.
As the PGA Tour heads to Florida. we’ll be putting on Bermuda for the first time this year. For all the obvious things about this course, with its plethora of water hazards, you’d think it’d be far from a putting contest. Yet, historically, putting has been incredibly important here, and I’ll definitely be heavily weighing putting in my model this week (at least more than than usual), especially Bermuda specialists. My key stats for the week are:
- Driving Distance
- Par 3 Scoring
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- SG: Approach
- Course History
- SG: Hard Courses
- Bogey Avoidance
- Distance from Fairway (When Missing Fairway)
Matt Fitzpatrick - 1 Unit (+3300)
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Matty Fitz is one of the highlight names in a stronger-than-normal field at the Hond.. erm.. Cognizant Classic, and I think 33-1 is a bargain on him this week.
He does not have extensive course history here, though he did make his PGA Tour debut at this event in 2016. However, he’s an excellent Bermuda putter (11th in the field in his last 100 rounds on Bermuda) and excels on the par 3s (6th in the field in same time frame) where he should be able to gain some strokes on the field.
Fitzpatrick does rank ninth in the field in historical Strokes Gained at Bay Hill, which is a pretty good analog to the setup here at PGA National. He’s also added enough distance to his game over the past few years to not be a liability in that department. I expected him to open as one of the golfers with the shortest odds this week and was candidly a bit shocked at his number. I’ll take the value here with my first outright play.
Byeong Hun An - 1 Unit (+2800)
David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports
An has been in fine form to start the 2024 season, though he’s cooled off a bit after back-to-back Top 5s at the Sentry and Sony to start the year.
While he’s not a good Bermuda putter at all, the results have been solid at PGA National. He’s made the cut in three of his last four attempts — including a very strong T4 in 2020. He’s been doing a ton of damage with the driver lately, and I expect him to be one of the golfers who can most take advantage of the expanded fairway real estate. He ranks 10th in the field in SG: OTT, fifth in Driving Distance and sixth in historical Strokes Gained at PGA National. I can overlook the Bermuda woes given his past play at this course specifically.
While he’s not quite the value that Fitzpatrick is, I still think we’re getting a bit of a bargain on an in-form golfer who should be able to get the most out of this setup especially off the tee.
Stephan Jaeger - 1 Unit (+4000)
Ray Acevedo-USA TODAY Sports
Jaeger looked excellent in Mexico en route to a T3 finish where he gained nearly 10 strokes to the field. That’s the second time in his last three starts (the other being Torrey Pines) where he’s gained more than nine strokes on the field.
This is a bet on strong form as much as anything, but he did finish T14 here last year despite mostly middling course history at PGA National and other Florida courses. He doesn’t really stand out in any one category but is a bit of a jack of all trades who is playing some very good golf as of late. Jaeger is basically as middle of the pack as it gets in terms of Bermuda putting, but his strong overall play and recent form is enough for me.
Shane Lowry - 1 Unit (+3300)
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
For all the talk about Bermuda and Course History, we perhaps strayed a bit away from that with the first three picks (despite its obvious importance) due to some other categories those players excel in. Not the case with Shane, who has emerged as a bit of a Florida specialist.
Lowry’s made four straight cuts at this event, including two Top 5’s in his last two appearances. He ranks inside the Top 10 in the field at both this course historically in terms of Strokes Gained, as well as inside the Top 10 on courses considered “Hard” in general. Interestingly, he’s excelled in Florida despite being a middling Bermuda putter, perhaps there’s just something about these types of setup that allow him to excel.
Despite a pretty ugly showing on the surface in Mexico, a deeper dive indicates that he was largely derailed by a disastrous -4.8 SG: Putting in the final round alone, which is as best I can tell, the single worst SG: Putting round of his career. I love betting on regression to the mean and particularly doing so on a guy who is a proven winner and has historically played very good golf at this venue.
Rasmus Højgaard - 1 Unit (+5000)
(Photo by Octavio Passos/Getty Images)
His brother, Nicolai, has put on an excellent showing as of late on the PGA Tour, but Rasmus also looks primed to make a splash after an outstanding run of results on the DP World Tour.
While it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison across tours, over his last 10 Tournaments (40 rounds), he ranks 2nd in the entire field in total strokes gained from Tee-To-Green trailing only Doug Ghim and ahead of the red hot Matthieu Pavon.
Højgaard has also been an outstanding putter (we admittedly lack much data for him on Bermuda) ranking 17th in the field over that same timeframe. He’s finished inside the Top 20 in nine consecutive starts, which is nearing Scottie Scheffler levels of consistent excellence — even if it has been all abroad.
Due to his youth and lack of data in the U.S. on the whole, we don’t have a ton to draw on here in terms of historical performance at either PGA National or as part of the Florida swing, or well… really at all. But I think this is a mispricing by the books on one of the hottest golfers in the world.
We’ve seen a lot of newcomers to the Tour excelling this year, and the stats show that Rasmus is certainly playing excellent golf across the board in a vacuum. I’m happy to jump at this 50-1 number.
