Our man didn’t get hot in Week 4. He stayed hot.
The legend of the Rhode Island Scumbag’s early season locks reached a new temperature last week, cashing three of four bets and only missing due to a combination of his local homerism and raging hatred of a certain Dallas Cowboys head coach. That leaves him at plus-14 units to start the year — a wicked, twirling cylinder of cash that hopefully picked a few of you up and launched you someplace green.
Of course, this creates *the risk.* Is our betting sherpa gonna get overconfident? Will he fall into the same traps that have haunted him the last two years and turned hot starts into sub-.500 records? History suggests regression is coming, but it stayed far, far away en route to last week’s 3-1 record and five-unit profit.
At the very least, it sounds like he fully understands the risk of falling off and hasn’t bought into his own hype. I mean, any more than usual. All Scumbag analysis is in blockquotes.
Week 4 lessons learned: don’t get personal. Last week, I made a critical error. I should have had a perfect betting card. Instead, I wanted to make fun of Mike McCarthy in my write up because he is a [redacted due to threats of legal action from the estimable Dallas Cowboys organization]. It was great analysis of his physique and poor analysis of the actual football game. I need to be better. Terrible homer selection by me.
On to week 5.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part I: Miami Dolphins -10.5 vs. the New York Giants (two units)
AP Photo/Adrian Kraus
Sometimes we overthink things as sports bettors. There is nothing more simple than this. Miami is good and they are especially good at home. New York is not good, they are banged up and they are coming off of a Monday Night Football game. If the Giants decide to show up Sunday and you back them; good for you. I’ll bet you they don’t.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part II: Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 vs. the Baltimore Ravens (two units)
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
This is pure situational handicapping for several reasons. Mike Tomlin as a home underdog, Pittsburgh looking terrible, Baltimore looking great, Tomlin coming off of a loss and a divisional home dog. I imagine this will be a pro vs. public game where most of the public will be backing the Ravens. Just like when I miss 10-foot bogey putts, I like to miss on the pro side. Let’s bet Tomlin to get his team back on track with a backdoor cover.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part III: Green Bay Packers -1 vs. the Las Vegas Raiders (one unit)
Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin.
I made this line Green Bay -4 so we are getting a full field goal of value. Las Vegas doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence; especially when playing from behind. LaFleur should have a nice game script for Love to hopefully establish an early lead.
It is worth noting that I was going to play the Detroit/Carolina over if Andy Dalton was starting. I think he gives the offense more opportunities to score.
However, with Bryce Young cleared to play it seems like they are going to be running an NFL QB school this season instead in an attempt to show the young man the ropes. Taking a bet off of the board requires discipline. Hard to do, but usually the right move.
Scumbag locks last week: 3-1 (.750), +5 units
Scumbag locks year to date: 11-4 (.733), +14 units
My non-scumbag locks: Washington Commanders -5.5 vs. the Chicago Bears (one unit), Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals UNDER 45.5 points (one unit) and Denver Broncos first half result -0.5 vs. the New York Jets (one unit)
Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
Welp, what was a productive week for my overall record — two wins, a loss and a push — wound up with me down slightly because of my three-unit bet on the Denver Broncos to cover a -0.5 point spread at halftime against the Chicago Bears. Instead they made Justin Fields look like a Hulked-out Fran Tarkenton and trailed 21-7 at the break. Boo to that, man.
As a result, I’ve got a better winning percentage than our foul-mouthed betting sherpa and half the bankroll. Being up seven units is great after four weeks, but it’s not the plus-14 that’s currently wrecking me.
My original thought was to back the Ravens against a bad quarterback on the road but … I kinda hate that play after looking at their schedule. The best quarterback they’ve beaten this year is CJ Stroud, who was making his pro debut. From there they beat Joe Burrow, 2023’s worst quarterback, by three points. They lost to Gardner Minshew, then handled Dorian Thompson-Robinson in a way that’s difficult to care much about.
Instead, give me a frisky Commanders team as my leadoff. The Bears may be playing for head coach Matt Eberflus’s job, but I get the feeling he won’t be entirely missed in Halas Hall. Washington has a better team than the Broncos and a defensive front that can consistently pressure Justin Fields, which should give them the advantage (and a reason to watch this putrid Thursday night matchup.
As for Broncos-Jets, I’m ready to get hurt again by betting on first half Russ. New York hasn’t led at halftime in any of their four games this season. But I’ll pretend I’ve learned from my mistakes by making it a one unit play instead of the two I’d originally considered.
The Bengals have very little offense to speak of and now Tee Higgins is ailing. The Cardinals have been exciting to watch but at some point their lack of depth is going to catch up. I don’t love this bet, but I like it more than betting Mac Jones to beat the New Orleans Saints or counting on the Bills coming off a big emotional win immediately followed by a trip overseas, which were my other considerations. I also like the Colts at home against the Titans, but both teams are a crapshoot so, I’m just gonna stay away.
Non-scumbag locks last week: 2-1-1 (.625), -1 unit
Non-scumbag locks year to date: 10-3-1 (.750), +7 units
