Jon Rahm ran away with the Masters title on Sunday.
He surged as Brooks Koepka fell apart down the stretch, saved Augusta National — and the PGA Tour — from awkwardly having to place a green jacket on a LIV Golf player and, most importantly, won his second major championship after the 2021 U.S. Open.
With pre-tournament odds of +900, it’s not surprising to see Rahm win at Augusta for the first time, but the way in which he won surely stunned many. Especially after he double bogeyed the first hole of the tournament.
Rahm came back from two strokes down at the start of the final round and won comfortably by four.
There’s a lot bettors can learn from the tournament overall, but these five takeaways are without a doubt the most important.
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1
Bet Rahm live when he's down 2+ strokes
Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Network
If Zach Ertz is really going to try jinxing Rahm before every major tournament now, bettors will be in luck.
Rahm is becoming the master of the comeback on the PGA Tour and that’s a boon for bettors. The Spaniard was available at +165 before teeing off for the final round with a two-stroke deficit. Now we know that’s easy money.
Of Rahm’s 11 pro wins, six have now come after he trailed by at least two strokes entering the final round.
Jon Rahm trailed by at least two strokes entering the final round in five of his 10 PGA TOUR wins, including the 2021 U.S. Open (trailed by three).#theMasters pic.twitter.com/Yu2bQcY2mP
— PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) April 9, 2023
You could still get Rahm as a pick em’ after four holes on Sunday, which seems like a steal in hindsight.
Front 9 odds via FanDuel. Brooks Koepka started 2 ahead of Jon Rahm, now 2 back.
Koepka / Rahm
Start: +100 / +165
After 1: +100 / +165
2: -110 / +190
3: +125 / +125
4: +175 / -110
5: +150 / -125
6: +250 / -190
7: +250 / -195
8: +340 / -320
9: +430 / -220
— Golfbet (@Golfbet) April 9, 2023
The lesson: If Rahm is remotely in contention on Sunday, it’s foolish to think he can’t win.
2
LIV Golf stamina concerns put to rest
Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Network
This was an incredibly tough week for the narrative that playing less golf on the LIV circuit would hurt those who defected from the PGA to the Saudi-backed league.
Phil Mickelson just played one of his best rounds ever to finish T2. Brooks Koepka was in the driver’s seat the majority of the tournament and still finished T2. Meanwhile, Patrick Reed finished T4.
On the other hand, Jordan Spieth is worried about how many tournaments he played before heading to Augusta.
“I played way too much coming into this,” Spieth said. “I came in mentally fatigued, and you overwork this week every year. I mean, this is eight out of 10 weeks. I need to change my schedule going forward to be sharper this week.”
3
Fade anyone playing with or behind Cantlay
(Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
Viktor Hovland had an unreal end to his third round on Sunday, stringing together five consecutive birdies to move to 8-under par for the tournament — three strokes back of the lead — and had a solo hold on third place.
He finished tied for 7th place with two bogeys and a double bogey derailing his final round just a few hours later.
So what changed? In the fourth round his was paired with Patrick Cantlay, who’s absurdly slow pace infuriated viewers and players alike. By the back nine, Hovland didn’t even care to wait for Cantlay to reach the green before he started putting. Brooks Koepka and Jon Rahm were forced to wait to hit multiple times due to Cantlay’s pace and expressed frustration afterwards.
It’s impossible to get into a rhythm if you can’t even control when you’ll get to hit.
The lesson: stay far away from anyone paired with Cantlay
4
The benefits of bad weather
(Photo by Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images)
The rain and wind — and falling trees — didn’t seem to make an impact on players who had no trouble with the weather causing the course to play longer.
When mother nature struck in Round 2, multiple golfers saw their game get better.
- Russell Henley shot an opening round 73, then finished 67-71-70 when the weather started up
- Hideki Matsuyama shot back-to-back rounds of 70 during the rain
- Sungjae Im shot the lowest score of a rain-delayed third round with a 67
The lesson: Player who excel at scrambling are worth betting in the rain
5
Masters trends to follow
(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
File this one away for next year’s Masters. Not since Charl Schwartzel’s improbable victory in 2011 has there been a Masters champion who was both ranked outside the top 30 in the OWGR and had outright odds worse than 66-1.
A Koepka win would’ve ended that streak in 2023, but now we know it holds true. Place your longshots in a Top-10 or Top 20 wager and stick to players with odds better than +6600.
The lesson: History repeats often at Augusta, if you know what to look for.
