Jan 7, 2024; Beverly Hills, CA, USA; Da’Vine Joy Randolph poses with the award for Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture for “The Holdovers” at the 81st Annual Golden Globe Awards at the Beverly Hilton Hotel in Beverly Hills, Calif.. Mandatory Credit: Dan MacMedan-USA TODAY

Randolph has the best odds – by a wide margin – out of any acting favorite to win their award. And for good reason. Her performance in The Holdovers has already won her awards from the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice, and the Toronto Film Critics Association, and she’s been nominated by the Gotham Awards and the BAFTAs.

It’s the first ever Oscars’ nomination for the 37-year-old, who also had a role in Rustin this year. She’s previously been recognized for her work in theatre for Ghost: The Musical, and on film and in television for roles in Dolemite Is My Name and Only Murders In the Building.

Running behind Randolph is Emily Blunt for Oppenheimer (+1100), Danielle Brooks for The Colour Purple (+1100), Jodie Foster for Nyad (+2000), and America Ferrera for Barbie (+2500).

It’s worth remembering that last year’s betting favorite for this award, Angela Bassett, did not win, as Jamie Lee Curtis was awarded for her work in Everything Everywhere All at Once.

This image released by Universal Pictures shows Robert Downey Jr as Lewis Strauss, left, and Matthew Modine as Vannevar Bush in a scene from “Oppenheimer.” (Universal Pictures via AP)

While Downey’s odds aren’t quite as good as Randolph’s, it sort of feels like he’s running away with this for his performance in Oppenheimer.

Before odds were updated after nominees were announced, sportsbooks seemed to think that Charles Melton was hot on Downey’s heels for his role in May December, giving him +300 odds. The Academy didn’t nominate Melton though, so Downey’s top competition might be eliminated.

Behind the man who spent more than a decade playing Iron Man is Ryan Gosling for Barbie (+650), Robert De Niro for Killers of the Flower Moon (+1400), Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things (+1600), and Sterling K. Brown for American Fiction (+2000).

Downey’s nomination also feels a bit like a “it’s time” award for him. This is the third time the 58-year-old has been nominated. He lost the 1993 Best Actor race to Al Pacino (Scent of a Woman) and the 2009 Best Supporting Actor race to Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight. Downey has been a working actor for a long time and his performance as Tony Stark in the Marvel Cinematic Universe is an iconic one that was never really recognized by a body like the Academy. His role in Oppenheimer could be the one that garners him the recognition he has long deserved.

This image released by Searchlight Pictures shows Emma Stone in a scene from “Poor Things.” (Searchlight Pictures via AP)

This feels like the most competitive race. For her role in Poor Things, Stone is the favorite, but just behind her at -105 odds is Lily Gladstone for her work in Killers of the Flower Moon. Both actresses took home awards at the Golden Globes and will be facing off for the top prize here.

Running behind them in a battle for third place is Sandra Huller for Anatomy of a Fall (+1400), Carey Mulligan for Maestro (+2000), and Annette Bening for Nyad (+3500). (Quick aside: Nyad seems to be The Wife of 2024, in that it’s a film hardly anyone saw that garnered some surprising Oscar nominations.)

This is the fourth time Stone has been nominated for an Oscar. She won in 2017 for La La Land. It’s the first nomination for Gladstone, and she becomes the first Native American to be nominated for an acting award at the Oscars.

This image released by Universal Pictures shows Cillian Murphy in a scene from “Oppenheimer.” (Universal Pictures via AP)

This race doesn’t seem quite as competitive as Best Actress, but Paul Giamatti appears to be closing in on Murphy for his performance in The Holdovers at +200 odds. Like the Best Actress category, Murphy and Giamatti were the two winners at the Golden Globes and they now square off here.

Murphy, who had never before been nominated for an Oscar, has longed been pegged as the favorite since Oppenheimer was released widely in July. It’s the second time Giamatti has been nominated, as he earned a nod in 2006 for Best Supporting Actor for his work in Cinderella Man, though that award ultimately went to George Clooney for Syriana.

Running behind Murphy and Giamatti are Bradley Cooper for Maestro (+750), Jeffrey Wright for American Fiction (+2500) and Colman Domingo for Rustin (+3500). No matter who takes home this award, it will go with a first-time winner.

This image released by Universal Pictures shows Dane Dehaan as Kenneth Nichols in a scene from “Oppenheimer.” (Melinda Sue Gordon/Universal Pictures via AP)

Nolan is the favorite here by an incredibly wide margin. Martin Scorsese and Yorgos Lanthimos are running in second place with +1400 odds each. Trailing them are Justine Triet (+1600) and Jonathan Glazer (+2500).

Nolan has never won an Oscar. He’s been nominated five previous times for his work on Memento, Inception and Dunkirk, the latter of which was the only other time he was nominated for Best Director.

Last year’s favorites, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, won this award, but with much lower odds at -140.

This image released by Universal Pictures shows Jason Clarke is Roger Robb in a scene from “Oppenheimer.” (Melinda Sue Gordon/Universal Pictures via AP)

Last year, Everything Everywhere All at Once was the favorite at -200 odds. It received the most nominations with 11 and won seven of those awards, including three in acting, Best Original Screenplay, Best Editing, Best Director and Best Picture.

Will Oppenheimer be another big winner? Perhaps.

In 2004 we saw The Return of the King – the third installment of Peter Jackson’s Lord of the Rings’ trilogy – win each of the 11 Oscars it was nominated for. But, until EEAO came along last year, we hadn’t really seen films with lots of nominations clean up in that way. In fact, we saw the opposite.

In 2022, The Power of the Dog got 12 nominations and just one win. In 2021, Mank got 10 nominations and only two wins. In 2020, Joker had 11 nominations and just two victories. Also in 2020, The Irishman had 10 nominations and was totally shut out.

It remains to be seen where Oppenheimer falls. Before EEAO’s victory, the last time a film with the most nominations in a year won Best Picture was The Shape of Water in 2018. Before that was 2015’s Birdman.