The 2024 Academy Awards still aren’t for a good while, but we’ve got a much better idea of what could in play for a Best Picture nomination.
Big fall film festivals like Toronto, Venice, New York and Telluride have come and gone, with AFI’s slate one of the big dominoes left to fall for film debuts this year.
We know that Oppenheimer and Barbie have dominated the film conversation this year, and we know that Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon has done exceptionally well with critics from its Cannes debut. Consider crowd-pleasing films like The Holdovers and American Fiction, too.
How is the Best Picture race shaping out past those three obvious contenders? Let’s take a look by ranking the odds at this early juncture.
Remember, take this with a grain of salt. We’ve got a long way to go.
10. Napoleon +1500
Ridley Scott hasn’t gotten into the Best Picture race since 2015’s The Martian, but we’re wondering if his big-budget historical biopic on Napoleon Bonaparte with Joaquin Phoenix at the lead will break recent history.
We’ll know next week how critics are reacting to this one, but hopes are high that it’ll live up to the bombastic tone and thrilling performance Phoenix has been hinting at in the trailers. It could sneak in on a late surge of goodwill.
9. Anatomy of a Fall +1000
As the Academy has added to its international contingent of voters, films like Drive My Car, Triangle of Sadness and All Quiet on the Western Front have broken through for Best Picture nominations in recent years, not to mention Parasite‘s Best Picture win during the 2019 season.
Jonathan Glazer’s Holocaust drama The Zone of Interest is one to watch that could get a boost from voters globally, but we’re going to give a nod to Justine Triet’s Cannes-topping courtroom drama that dually dissects a marriage.
The film is already playing in theaters and could gain some serious momentum by getting in front of audiences now as opposed to later.
8. Past Lives +800
Past Lives is still one of the year’s best films, and A24 will undoubtedly push this one as its best chance to contend for a Best Picture nomination this year.
As long as this film can keep staying on the minds of voters through the awards season, we’re betting Celine Song’s directorial debut ends up here.
7. Maestro +700
Bradley Cooper’s sophomore effort could be much higher on this list once it gets out more into the world, as it’s clearly the kind of film Oscar voters usually love to support.
What will be interesting is how many categories Cooper will show up in for this once since he’s one of the stars, its director and one of its writers.
6. Poor Things +600
Searchlight
Yorgos Lanthimos’ latest film could be too strange to actually win Best Picture, but the accomplished auteur will assuredly make the cut right now.
Emma Stone could win her second Oscar for this film, which should show up in plenty of categories on nomination morning.
5. Barbie +500
Everyone saw Barbie, and mostly everyone loved Barbie. The film looks like it’ll earn nominations all across the board, and there really could be enough love for this film in the industry to push it over the top.
We’ll see how this starry comedy fares once the precursors start rolling out, but don’t underestimate how many people might behind this one.
4. American Fiction +400
Television vet Cord Jefferson’s directorial debut winning the Toronto Film Festival’s Audience Award has positioned American Fiction as a clear contender for Best Picture.
This timely satire looks to also put Jeffrey Wright in the Best Actor competition, and that matters if you can get the actors behind your film in the Oscars’ top category.
3. The Holdovers +400
Focus Features
Alexander Payne’s new dramedy with Paul Giamatti has garnered rave reviews, and it could be the feel-good holiday film that everyone rallies around.
It’s also a film that could perform exceptionally well on the preferential ballot system, too. Keep an eye out for The Holdovers this awards season; it could be a sneaky contender for the top prize.
2. Killers of the Flower Moon +300
Martin Scorsese’s latest has performed admirably at the box office and it looks well-positioned for the expected strong Oscars push it’s been building momentum for all year long.
We’ll see if there’s enough love for this film to push it over the top, but it’s going to make the cut for a nomination at the least.
1. Oppenheimer +150
Unless the Academy opts for more of a crowd-pleasing film like The Holdovers, American Fiction or Barbie, Oppenheimer still looks like the clear favorite to take home Best Picture at the moment.
We’ve still got a ways to go, but Christopher Nolan’s historical epic nearly made a billion dollars worldwide and tapped into the zeitgeist in a way that historical epics rarely do. Maybe this Nolan film really will go the mile.
Other Categories
Best Director
- Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer +150
- Greta Gerwig – Barbie +300
- Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon +300
- Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things +600
- Bradley Cooper – Maestro +1000
Best Actor
- Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer +250
- Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers +300
- Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon +300
- Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction +450
- Bradley Cooper – Maestro +700
Best Actress
- Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon +300
- Emma Stone – Poor Things +400
- Annette Bening – Nyad +500
- Carey Mulligan – Maestro +600
- Margot Robbie – Barbie +600
Best Supporting Actor
- Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer +100
- Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things +300
- Ryan Gosling – Barbie +300
- Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon +450
- Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction +600
Best Supporting Actress
- Jodie Foster – Nyad +300
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers +400
- Sandra Hüller – The Zone of Interest +600
- Julianne Moore – May December +600
- Leslie Uggams – American Fiction +700
Best Original Screenplay
- Barbie (Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach) +300
- Past Lives (Celine Song) +400
- The Holdovers (David Hemingson) +400
- Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari & Justine Triet) +500
- Maestro (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer) +700
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan) +250
- American Fiction (Cord Jefferson) +300
- Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese) +300
- Poor Things (Tony McNamara) +400
- Priscilla (Sofia Coppola) +800
