No professional sports league sells hope quite like the NFL.
At the start of the regular season, everyone has a clean slate and a chance to make some real noise. Everyone matters and is someone to keep a keen eye on. In the NFL, parity is king.
It’s nowhere better exemplified than with the annual playoff picture. On average, there are at least six new postseason teams every winter. That means almost half the field is replaced on an annual basis, adding to the mystique that this could, indeed, be someone’s year. In this case, that’s the 2023 season.
If you weren’t already doing the math, with a 14-team playoff format, 18 NFL teams failed to qualify for the playoffs last year. That is 18 teams tempered at various degrees of “rebuild,” “retool,” and “regroup.” Not everyone who missed the postseason is on the same footing. Some are a lot closer to January’s big dance than others.
Below is an examination of the NFL’s non-playoff teams from 2022. It asks two simple questions: How can they qualify for the postseason in 2023? And what will stop them? Nothing more because we already have an answer to a third question:
Yes, most likely, six of these squads below will make the playoffs this season.
All playoff odds via BetMGM.
Grab Your BetMGM Bonus Code Offer Now
Arizona Cardinals
Michael Chow-Arizona Republic
How they can make a playoff push: If Kyler Murray really will be ready for Week 1 after his ACL tear, suddenly, this team doesn’t look so inept. Its primary creator/playmaker can facilitate the offense now built around Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and the hopeful rise of the speedy Rondale Moore.
Why they can’t: Even if Murray can play, nothing says he’ll regain his Pro Bowl form from 2020-2021. The last time we saw Murray healthy, in 2022, was when he was one of the NFL’s worst signal callers. If Murray does play well, he’s buoying one of the league’s most atrocious rosters with only a handful of notable players like Brown and former All-Pro Budda Baker. There’s not a lot of margin for error.
Atlanta Falcons
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
How they can make a playoff push: Arthur Smith’s ground-based offense grinds the other NFC South defenses into a fine paste. In the event anyone has an answer for Bijan Robinson or Tyler Allgeier, a serviceable Desmond Ridder breaks games open with shots to Kyle Pitts and Drake London. A revitalized defense filled with quality depth stymies offenses enough to create a solid number of takeaways.
Why they won’t: Even in a weak NFC, the Falcons’ only real shot at the postseason is winning arguably the NFL’s worst division — the NFC South. That’s also predicated around Ridder being the real deal. He might just be Marcus Mariota Lite, and as Falcons fans will attest, that’s not necessarily a good thing.
Carolina Panthers
AP Photo/Chris Carlson
How they can make a playoff push: Bryce Young grows comfortable fast and elevates an offense of role players as a legit Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate. Brian Burns leads a sneaky-good Panthers defense as it takes the next step to “shutdown.” Frank Reich continues adding to a promising locker room culture as head coach.
Why they won’t: Of the rookie quarterbacks who could be immediate stars, Young isn’t my pick. His No. 1 receiver is 32-year-old Adam Thielen and perennial journeyman Hayden Hurst is his tight end. Even if Young proves the pro game isn’t too fast for him quickly, it’s quite likely his teammates let him down anyway.
Chicago Bears
Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports
How they can make a playoff push: As one of pro football’s more underrated receivers during his time in Carolina, D.J. Moore becomes a household name in tandem with Justin Fields. Chicago’s third-year signal caller accounts for at least 4,000 yards of offense (passing and rushing) as his throwing game takes the next step. And a previously awful Bears defense is much improved with the additions of Tremaine Edmunds, T.J. Edwards, and rookie second-round pick cornerback Tyrique Stevenson.
Why they can’t: Who’s the Bears’ top edge pass rusher? DeMarcus Walker, he of 19.5 career sacks and 39 quarterback hits in … six years? That DeMarcus Walker? Or is it one-note sack merchant Yannick Ngakoue? The Bears of the last two years have invested premium resources in almost every position across their roster. But curiously, they haven’t added a difference-making edge player. Even if their offense takes the next step, being incapable of hitting the other quarterback is a death sentence.
Cleveland Browns
Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
How they can make a playoff push: Deshaun Watson, who once faced more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct for what the NFL would later describe as “predatory behavior”, plays like the star Cleveland thought it was selling its soul for. Za’Darius Smith provides the Browns with that second major pass-rushing element they’ve been missing alongside Myles Garrett.
Why they won’t: Watson isn’t automatically going to rebound from looking like he didn’t belong on a professional football in 2022. There’s a genuine chance he continues to wallow in the abyss of inaccuracy, a complete lack of poise, and general discomfort at playing in the Browns’ environment. Also, the AFC North literally has two better teams with two better quarterbacks and, well, better everything.
Denver Broncos
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images
How they can make a playoff push: Sean Payton successfully toes the line of scaling back Russell Wilson’s passing responsibilities while giving him an efficient second wind. A top-10 defense from a year ago is boosted by the addition of actual edge pass rushers, Frank Clark and Zach Allen.
Why they won’t: Mike McGlinchey craters instead of playing like a big-ticket free agent tackle, in turn sinking an abysmal offensive line from a year ago. Clark and Allen prove to be more proficient as role players than full-time starters, leaving the Denver pass rush in a bind.
Detroit Lions
Rey Del Rio/Getty Images
How they can make a playoff push: An offensive line with three first-round picks imposes its will on defensive fronts with controlled chaos, and Penei Sewell leads the charge. Jahmyr Gibbs morphs into Jared Goff’s second safety valve after Amon-Ra St. Brown. C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Cameron Sutton slot in seamlessly, adding playmaking and consistency to a previously woeful secondary.
Why they won’t: The Lions are a team of hype. They were red hot to close 2022 and resemble a mostly complete squad as they try to build on their hot streak. But something unforeseen almost always drags a chic team down into the muck. Is it a thin receiving corps with only Amon-Ra St. Brown to lean on? Can that right cornerback spot with Emmanuel Mosley be trusted? Will someone aside from Aidan Hutchinson emerge as a productive pass rusher? Detroit needs at least two yeses from the above list to maintain momentum.
Green Bay Packers
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
How they can make a playoff push: Jordan Love plays with poise and confidence, showing off flashes of greatness. A defense stacked with talent and resources from top to bottom flexes its muscles on the hapless offensive lines and quarterbacks that comprise most of the league. Aaron Jones accounts for his usual 1500-plus yards from scrimmage as a rusher and receiver.
Why they won’t: The first year after a legend’s extended run is never easy. By many accounts, Love has the full support of the Green Bay faithful. That doesn’t lessen the pressure of following in the footsteps of Aaron Rodgers at all. Should Love rise to the occasion, he’s leaning on Christian Watson as a pass target while hoping someone else proves consistently viable. Green Bay has a high floor with its defense, but a young quarterback’s rite of passage could hold it back.
Houston Texans
Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
How they can make a playoff push: C.J. Stroud maximizes the Texans’ supporting cast — thanks to Dameon Pierce’s bruising ground game showcase — and pushes for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Will Anderson blossoms sooner than expected, giving a secondary with young playmakers like Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley more opportunities for takeaways.
Why they won’t: Stroud is another quarterback who will need patience before he can even come close to looking like a finished product. And No. 1 receiver Robert Woods (at this stage of his career, anyway) just hurts to read. The Texans are also a very young team. Even if the ideal scenario works out for them, it’s likely their youth costs them in a few close games that will matter in the playoff standings.
Indianapolis Colts
Michael Hickey/Getty Images
How they can make a playoff push: A dynamic and dual-threat Anthony Richardson is the not-so-secret ingredient for an offense with playmakers like Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce. A transitional Indianapolis defense plays ahead of schedule, led by resurgent years from former All-Pros DeForest Buckner and Shaquille Leonard.
Why they won’t: Richardson, while explosive, proves to be too raw as a passer initially, with defenses slowly learning how to hem in his running ability. Any prolonged absence from Jonathan Taylor will only exacerbate that negative effect. The Colts’ average defense is cut up by any halfway competent offense that can complete a slant with a standard speedster.
Las Vegas Raiders
Silas Walker/Getty Images
How they can make a playoff push: Jimmy Garoppolo leaderships his way to throwing 200 targets to Davante Adams. Josh McDaniels maintains his coaching composure for at least two-thirds of the season.
Why they won’t: Where do you even start? There’s Maxx Crosby and the Regular Guys everywhere else on defense. Josh Jacobs potentially loses a step after leading the league in rushing last year. And, as likened, Garoppolo plays like a quarterback who can throw the best player the ball sometimes.
Los Angeles Rams
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images
How they can make a playoff push: Matthew Stafford, at age 35, is healthy and plays in at least 15 games. Both Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp return to elite form after their respective injuries and down years from a season ago. Someone, literally anyone else, steps up on defense to complement Donald wreaking havoc on the interior.
Why they won’t: Donald is the only “name” defender the Rams’ defense currently possesses, and I’m not entirely sure that’s an accident. L.A. is bereft of dependable defenders, leaving Donald on an island to destroy planets by himself. The 32-year-old veteran is predisposed to doing that anyway, but 2023 projects to be his toughest challenge yet. It is also no guarantee Stafford stays healthy in his mid-30s after his recent back ailments.
New England Patriots
AP Photo/Michael Dwyer
How they can make a playoff push: Bill Belichick hits the proper chords with an athletic, physical, and intimidating defense. Mac Jones returns to an effective game manager status, letting the run game led by Rhamondre Stevenson take center stage.
Why they won’t: There is nothing to this point that suggests Jones is anything more than a checkdown, system player. If anything, it’s hard to see how he’s even a system player, given his alarming struggles as a sophomore. The Patriots’ set of offensive weapons is also as intimidating as a snarling puppy. As a result, a strong defense forced to carry the brunt of the load fades down the stretch.
New Orleans Saints
Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
How they can make a playoff push: Offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael gives Derek Carr a safe landing pad on a new team and in a new offense. Michael Thomas returns to at least an above-average level of play. Cam Jordan, at age 34, produces another near-double-digit sack season for an underrated, attacking Saints defense.
Why they won’t: Like most of their NFC South brethren, the Saints’ only real shot at making the playoffs will be winning this terrible division. This team isn’t good enough for a Wild Card berth against the meat of the conference. Which is a shame because that top-10 defense in efficiency is in place and ready to win now. It’s that top-heavy offense with a merely OK quarterback that won’t be enough to lift New Orleans out of the muck.
New York Jets
Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
How they can make a playoff push: Aaron Rodgers plays more like a former four-time MVP than the replaceable starter of 2022. Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman, and even Randall Cobb act as great complements to Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. The New York defense quite literally picks up where it left off just before Zach Wilson sank everything.
Why they won’t: Rodgers will be 40 in December. As a big-game hunter who held the ball for a long time and who became famous because of his work outside the pocket, Rodgers has taken a lot of punishment during his career. His drop off a cliff could happen at any moment. Heck, it might have already happened, and the Jets aren’t even getting the Rodgers they bargained for.
Pittsburgh Steelers
AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack
How they can make a playoff push: Pittsburgh maximizes a relative cupcake schedule to give itself a foundation. The Steelers’ defense plays like the “Steel Curtain,” with T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, Alex Highsmith, and Minkah Fitzpatrick all playing at Pro Bowl levels.
Why they won’t: Pittsburgh has the kind of impressive roster where it might not matter who its quarterback is. But it shouldn’t make anyone feel better that said quarterback is Kenny Pickett, a quarterback allergic to (or downright incapable of) throwing downfield. The Steelers’ skill group proves to be overhyped, with Pat Freiermuth being the only reliable, field-tilting target.
Tennessee Titans
Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
How they can make a playoff push: Derrick Henry’s visit to the Lazarus Pits proves fruitful with a top-five rushing campaign. DeAndre Hopkins recaptures his youth and successfully mentors the promising Treylon Burks into a Pro Bowl campaign. Someone on defense steps up outside of the Jeffery Simmons, Harold Landry, and Kevin Byard trio.
Why they won’t: Tennessee doesn’t know what it has at quarterback. It’s unclear if Ryan Tannehill can still be an effective starter at age 35, and Malik Willis and Will Levis are both sizable projects. An ordinary defense is victimized in any instance one of the Big 3 has an off-game. Hopkins drops off while Burks fails to step up.
Grab Your FanDuel Promo Code Offer Now
Washington Commanders
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
How they can make a playoff push: GM Martin Mayhew’s underestimated roster overwhelms opponents. A defensive line of Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, and Montez Sweat proves unblockable every week, with rookie ballhawk Emmanuel Forbes taking advantage. Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson both play at a Pro Bowl receiver level to elevate the green Sam Howell.
Why they won’t: It’s not like this is a secret to anyone in Washington, but Howell — or Insert Quarterback — is all that really prevents the Commanders from contending. Howell may well become a capable starter. But he remains more of a project that needs time to develop and grow acclimated to a professional offense.
