The Detroit Lions and quarterback Matthew Stafford have mutually agreed to part ways this offseason, per multiple reports. So the already insane QB market will have another huge name, and the Lions will be looking to fill the most important position in the sport.
No, you’re not the only one with SO. MANY. QUESTIONS.
It’s rare to see a star quarterback demand a trade in the NFL, even if we’re witnessing it happening in Houston with Deshaun Watson and the Texans. (What an offseason it’s going to be!) But it’s even rarer to see both the quarterback and the team amicably agree they need to move in separate ways. So it’s hard to say what, exactly, Stafford is worth.
When healthy, Stafford, 33, is among the top 10 players at his position. He’s also due a modest amount of money over the next two years: $20 million in 2021 and $23 million in 2022. (It’s unclear if he would expect a new contract upon landing with a new team.)
Consider that Carson Palmer, at age 33, was worth a first- and second-round pick when the Bengals traded him in 2011. It was an eerily similar situation — Palmer was ready to retire, rather than play more for Cincinnati. Sam Bradford (when he was pretty clearly washed) was worth a first-round pick and a fourth-round pick. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey, an elite player demanding a trade, was worth two first-round picks.
My guess: Stafford is worth roughly 1400 points in draft assets, the equivalent of the No. 8 overall pick. You can also get to that total with a late first-round pick and a 2022 first-round pick (or 2021 mid-round first-round and second-round picks and a 2022 second-rounder).
Even after demanding a trade (which could have killed the Lions’ leverage in negotiations), there will be many suitors, which should push Stafford’s value to normal market price. So here’s who might be able to acquire Stafford, which means they have the draft assets and the finances in place to accommodate him.
1
Indianapolis Colts
With the third-most cap space in the NFL in 2021, Chris Ballard is one of the most patient and shrewd general managers. The Colts could give up the 21st-overall pick in 2021 as a part of a package for Stafford, who would immediately replace retired quarterback Philip Rivers. It’s one of the more seamless ways for the Colts to stay relevant, especially with Ballard admitting he doesn’t expect a good QB to fall to their draft position.
Ballard evidently loves building through the draft (which might make him loath to trade away a big package), but he did trade a first-round pick to the 49ers for defensive lineman DeForest Buckner last year. Would the GM make a similar blockbuster this year?
2
San Francisco 49ers
Kyle Shanahan committed to Jimmy Garoppolo for 2021, but when the Stafford news broke, the 49ers were immediately linked to the Lions quarterback. What team says and what a team does are rarely corollary.
Stafford would be a major upgrade for San Francisco, which boast a handful of explosive targets for Stafford in tight end George Kittle and receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.
If the 49ers parted ways with Jimmy Garoppolo, they should free enough cap space to add Stafford.
3
New England Patriots
The Patriots are still quarterback-needy after a failed experiment with Cam Newton, who played on a one-year deal in 2020. Neither New England nor Newton have made a clear indication about whether they’ll work together in 2021.
Stafford would be a strong addition for the Patriots, who have enough cap space to trade for the quarterback before signing a weapon or two for him in free agency. (The pass-catching group is one of the worst in the NFL.) That said, it’s worth wondering whether ex-Lions coach Matt Patricia, who rejoined the Patriots this week, might complicate Stafford’s interest in playing for New England.
4
Washington Football Team
They’re in need of a quarterback, with Alex Smith looking physically finished and Dwayne Haskins getting cut. Washington is slated to pick at 19th overall, where they won’t be in range for the top four (Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson. Trey Lance) and maybe even five (Mac Jones) quarterbacks in the draft. The Football Team has $32 million in cap space and they looked a “quarterback away” in 2020.
(Of course the real truth is they played in the league’s most putrid division and barely scraped out a trip to the playoffs and ned plenty of work at many positions.)
5
Denver Broncos
But… Drew Lock!?
Well, there’s a new front-office executive, George Paton, calling shots in Denver. After ex-GM John Elway drafted Lock in 2019, there’s no saying whether the quarterback’s spot as starter will be secure. Lock has been fine — which is admirable considering he lost most of his supporting cast to injury in 2020. But there’s no doubt: Stafford is an upgrade. Denver has just $16.8 million in cap space, though that’s an insignificant hurdle for the Broncos.
6
Chicago Bears
They’re obviously in need of a quarterback after an awful season from Nick Foles and a mixed year from Mitchell Trubisky, but the Bears have a lot of obstacles in the way of acquiring Stafford. First, they are projected to be $10 million over the cap in 2021. They’d need to clear space. And then there’s the matter of the Lions and Bears being divisional rivals. Chicago’s offer would have to blow away the other offers.
7
New York Jets/Miami Dolphins
These two teams are the leading candidates to land Deshaun Watson. The Jets have the No. 2 overall pick and the Dolphins have the third-overall pick in the 2021 draft. Those picks would probably be on the table for a Watson deal. The team that does not land Watson could still acquire an excellent veteran quarterback in Stafford.
The Jets have an extra first-round pick at 23rd overall (from the Seahawks in the Jamal Adams trade). The Dolphins have one at 18th overall. So even if they didn’t want to trade away top five picks, they could still use those picks in a package for Stafford. The Dolphins cold also include Tua Tagovailoa. Both teams have enough cap space, though the the Jets ($65M) have more than the Dolphins ($25M).
8
New Orleans Saints
They are projected to be over the cap by an obscene $105 million. There’s no way they can get Stafford — right?! Well, Saints reporter Nick Underhill put together a convincing, 16-part plan that would put them under the cap to where they could acquire Stafford. (Drew Brees’ retirement, of course, is the first step.) The Saints would then need to make additional moves to add any other talent. So it’s definitely a long shot, which is why they sit at the bottom of this list.
9
So wait, who is going to play QB for the Lions?
The Detroit Free Press’ Dave Birkett suggested the Lions”absolutely have to come from this year’s draft with a young quarterback, and they may need to use pieces acquired in a Stafford trade.”
The Lions are slated to pick at seventh overall. But by then, it’s easy to imagine they’ll have to decide between Lance and Jones, with Lawrence, Fields and Wilson off the board. So if the Lions prefer Fields or Wilson over Lance and Jones, Detroit could use draft assets to move up the board, which will be more palatable, if they get a big haul in a Stafford trade.
The Lions’ alternative options could include pursuits of young castoff quarterbacks in free agency like Jameis Winston (who worked with Lions coach Dan Campbell in New Orleans in 2020), Mitchell Trubisky, and Josh Rosen, among others. The free agent veterans include Cam Newton, Jacoby Brissett, Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Fitzpatrick.
If the Lions staged a trade with the Jets, Dolphins or 49ers, Detroit could ask that their trade partner to include a quarterback: Sam Darnold, Tagovailoa or Garoppolo.
It’s certainly not an enviable position for Detroit, which is why the Lions are likely to pinch every asset out of their trade partner to help secure their future.
