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UConn-Purdue best bets: Pro bettors give their picks for the men's NCAA tournament title game

The men’s national championship game is finally here, and the UConn Huskies have a real opportunity to do something remarkable: Not only win back-to-back titles, but cover all 12 games during the run.

Both Purdue and UConn have been good to bettors in this tournament, going a perfect 5-0 in their games, and the spread for the title game has slowly drifted up, with the Huskies now a 7-point favorite.

For The Win asked a few respected bettors for their best bets for Monday’s Purdue-UConn title game.

No. 1 UConn (-7, 145) vs. No. 1 Purdue 

We have the National Championship game we wanted: No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 1 Purdue. Both teams are perfect against the spread in the tournament. It’s the perfect title game matchup.

UConn is the defending national champion and is now the seventh-best college basketball team this season against the spread, holding a 27-12 (69.2 percent) ATS record. UConn covered the 11.5-point spread against Alabama in the Final Four, and have been superb this season as a betting favorite, currently 27-11 (71.1 percent) ATS.

Purdue has been a strong team to back as well, holding a 21-15-2 (58.2 percent) ATS record, including a perfect 2-0 ATS as an underdog. Center Zach Edey was just named the AP Player of the Year for the second straight year, and he has been brilliant in the tournament, averaging 28 points and 15.4 rebounds per game.

The key to this matchup is the lack of elite competition for Purdue in the tournament. The Boilermakers faced Grambling State, Utah State, Gonzaga, Tennessee and NC State. Grambling State and Utah State were the easiest two games for any No. 1 seed. Gonzaga was well-below their normal level of play, and the Boilermakers faced a Tennessee team at a huge disadvantage with an ineffective Santiago Vescovi battling the flu. In the Final Four, they faced an overachieving NC State team with no depth and limited offensive ability.

Connecticut will be the biggest challenge Purdue has faced all season. The Huskies offense is almost unstoppable as a result of its fantastic balance. The Huskies have four players averaging over 13 PPG with eight players averaging 12 MPG or more. In the Final Four matchup with Alabama, the Crimson decided to let freshman Stephon Castle have open shots, and he responded with 21 points and seven rebounds.

As great as UConn is on offense (81.4 PPG), its defense is extremely underrated. The Huskies rank fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency, third in effective field goal percentage allowed and second in two-point percentage allowed. Their numbers have actually improved during the tournament, despite playing elite competition.

Connecticut has been so dominant that I’m backing the Huskies one final time.  They have won their five tournament games by an average of 25 PPG and won last year’s National Championship by 17 points. Purdue’s entire offense is based around the scoring success of Edey, but UConn has the depth with Donovan Clingan and Samson Johnson to provide resistance on the interior that Purdue hasn’t faced all tournament. The Huskies covers in Monday’s night’s season finale, earning Connecticut back-to-back titles. – Mike Randle, FTN Network

The bet: Connecticut -6.5

Player projections for Newton call for 6.4 helpers over 32 minutes. Considering he’s likely to log 35-plus minutes in the tightest game Connecticut has played all March, Newton’s ceiling on assists is north of seven for Monday’s game. Connecticut ranks No. 4 in points per play off cuts and runs those sets at the 52nd highest rate in the country, according to ShotQualityBets. The Huskies also light it up with their off-screen sets (No. 8 in points per play at 17th highest play rate) – all of which are facilitated by Newton’s passing prowess. Purdue, conversely, can struggle against that ball movement. The Boilermakers, who give up more than 14 assists an outing (279th) and allow an assist-to-FGM rate ranked 281st (54.7 percent), find themselves ranked 168th and 107th in points allowed per play versus “cutting” and “off-screen” schemes. – Jason Logan, Covers

The bet: Tristen Newton over 5.5 assists (-115)

Cam Spencer is a steady scorer for UConn and is shooting the ball well in the NCAA tournament, making 47 percent of his shots including 43 percent from beyond the arc. This matchup with Purdue will see both teams pack the paint with their respective big men, which means perimeter play will see an uptick in touches. Spencer’s player props call for closer to 15 points over 36 minutes of floor time, and since this will be UConn’s toughest test in a long time, he’ll get plenty of minutes. Sportsbooks have Spencer’s point total as high as 14.5 points while some sharp books have the Over 13.5 points juiced to -134. You can find that same total at -118 at FanDuel, as of Sunday morning. — Logan

The bet: Cam Spencer over 13.5 points (-118)

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