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Lamar Jackson supplants Brock Purdy as MVP favorite, but the door is wide open for a non-QB

Lamar Jackson is the new favorite to win the NFL’s MVP award at BetMGM. After the Baltimore Ravens rolled over the San Francisco 49ers Monday night, Jackson’s odds shortened to -160, passing previous leader Brock Purdy, who dropped from -225 last week to fourth place at +1200.

It was a massive drop for Purdy, whose previous odds made him the biggest MVP favorite all year. He appeared to be cruising to the award before San Francisco’s stunning loss. His drop continues a trend of quarterbacks treating the top spot like a game of hot potato, with Jackson becoming the fifth different quarterback to hold at least a share of the top odds in the last six weeks. That includes Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott.

The movement serves as a warning that Jackson’s hold on the top spot is anything but a lock. If he doesn’t finish strong in Baltimore’s final two games, someone else will creep up the leaderboard. Just as Jackson passed Purdy with a win over the 49ers, Tua Tagovailoa can do the same to him Sunday, with the Ravens and Dolphins set to clash in a game for the AFC’s top spot.

The quarterbacks failing to take control of the award could also leave the door open for a non-QB to win it. As each leader has faltered, Christian McCaffrey has held steady just a few spots back. His odds finally made a real leap to +400 after Purdy’s four-interception letdown against the Ravens. Tyreek Hill can similarly improve his chances with a strong showing against Baltimore.

Jackson’s counting stats aren’t the strongest relative to other quarterbacks, so his biggest advantage is leading the team with the NFL’s best record. Any change in that could open the door for someone else to win the MVP — including a non-QB for the first time since 2012.

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