At this time yesterday, the Cleveland Browns had 22-1 Super Bowl odds at BetMGM, which were tied for 10th-best in the NFL and sixth-best in the AFC.
Today, after news that quarterback Deshaun Watson will undergo season-ending surgery on his throwing shoulder, those odds are down to +5000. It’s only a couple spots back relative to the rest of the league — tied for 12th with three other teams — but represents a huge dive in their implied chances of winning a title.
.@Browns odds to win Super Bowl at @BetMGM
+2200: Before Deshaun Watson surgery
+4000: After 📉 pic.twitter.com/wzuzeFcPay
— John Ewing (@johnewing) November 15, 2023
To put into perspective the change in how oddsmakers view the Browns, their odds went from tied with the Buffalo Bills to tied with the Houston Texans.
However, while there’s a new ceiling on Cleveland’s season without Watson, the team’s game-to-game ceiling isn’t quite as stuffy. Though the spread for Sunday’s game against the Pittsburgh Steelers moved two points from -4, the Browns are still -2 favorites at home. Which makes sense considering Pittsburgh holds identical 50-1 Super Bowl odds.
Furthermore, three of the next four teams on Cleveland’s schedule have losing records. So, whether it’s PJ Walker or Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback, they could very well ride a 6-3 start to the season into a playoff appearance. But even if they do, oddsmakers don’t expect much beyond that.
