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2023 WNBA Finals odds and predictions: Will the Liberty dethrone the reigning champion Aces?

After 4 1/2 months, the WNBA season has finally reached the climax we all knew it would in May when the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty entered the regular season as the betting favorites to win this year’s title.

Now, these teams are set to play in the 2023 WNBA Finals, beginning with Game 1 Sunday.

However, while the defending champion Aces held top preseason odds — and finished the regular season with the best record in the WNBA — it was New York with the edge in their head-to-head meetings, winning three of five games with the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Final included. And none of the games were close. The average margin of victory in those games was 19 points. So, it’s safe to say this is no easy series to project.

The Aces remain title favorites going in, with -210 odds at BetMGM to +170 for the Liberty. A’ja Wilson holds top MVP odds at -175, followed by Breanna Stewart at +280. Sabrina Ionescu is a distant third at +900.

I wouldn’t count the Aces as a lock, though. With a completely healthy team in June, they won the first meeting between these super-teams. But after losing Candace Parker to a broken foot, they’ve beaten New York just once in the last four games. So, it’s reasonable to assume they’re in for a battle.

They’ve had plenty of time to adjust to life without Parker, finishing the season 18-4 in games without her and sweeping their way through the playoffs. So, that momentum combined with their championship experience and grit should give the Aces plenty of confidence as they get ready for New York. Not to mention, Wilson will have plenty of fire after finishing third in regular-season MVP voting, with Stewart winning.

But, in my opinion, Parker is what tipped the scales in the Aces’ favor. With her still out, these teams are relatively even.

 

The Liberty had a tougher path to the finals, going through Washington and Connecticut, which should have them prepared for another tough series. With the mental edge they likely have from the regular season, and Stewart finally catching a rhythm over her last couple of games, I think New York wins a series that goes the distance, and Ionescu takes MVP thanks to some clutch performances when her team needs them the most.

Prince’s Pick: Liberty in 5

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