Welcome to the Winner’s Circle, a weekly column for BetFTW senior writer Prince J. Grimes to give his thoughts on what’s trending in sports betting.

If you saw the headline to this article and assumed it would be another entry into the years-old debate over who was more important to the New England Patriots dynasty between Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, you’re not completely wrong.

I’m not here to take a dump on Belichick while he’s down, though — and let’s be clear, he is down. Like, really, really down. I’m just here point to a fact that was true all along and appears to be as clear as ever now. No matter how great a coach is, his team is only going as far as the quarterback can take it.

When it comes to the Patriots, bettors have been slow to come to that realization. I know, because I’ve done it myself. You see the Patriots scheduled against a team with a young or below average quarterback, and you just assume they’ll come out on the right side of a bet — no matter how bad their own quarterback is — because it’s the Patriots, it’s Belichick.

A lot of people made that mistake Sunday. The Patriots were a big Week 5 public team as 1.5-point favorites over the New Orleans Saints, and as the Las Vegas Review-Journal’s Todd Dewey reported, sportsbooks cleaned up on New England’s stunning 34-0 loss.

But here’s the thing. Betting on that game should have never been so lopsided to begin with. Sure, Derek Carr and the Saints looked abysmal in scoring just nine points in Week 4. But the Pats were coming off a 38-3 loss themselves. While no one could have predicted a shutout loss at home to follow, the game was always a toss up.

Without Brady, the Patriots just haven’t been a good bet. That’s not a knock on Belichick, who certainly hasn’t helped himself as a general manager. But it’s an undeniable fact. The success they shared in 20 years together is unprecedented. They never had a losing season. They posted double-digit wins in all but one year and won six Super Bowls. That success translated to betting too. New England had just one losing season against the spread in that span, according to SportsOddsHistory data.

But in just over three years without Brady, New England has already eclipsed that number, posting two losing seasons ATS and trending for a third after falling to 1-4 this year. Sunday’s loss was the worst of them all and might finally be the wake-up call bettors needed after a three-year grace period.

This is the new normal for the Patriots, and there’s nothing Belichick can do to change it short of finding a franchise quarterback. That doesn’t mean he wasn’t or isn’t still a great coach. It simply puts in perspective how important Brady was to his success. Whatever success you think New England is supposed to still be having walked out the door with the quarterback.