There’s no question that the Colorado Buffaloes have been the early story of this college football season. Love them or hate them, the betting public is fascinated by them — and still betting Deion Sanders’ team to win this week vs. Oregon, even as a massive underdog.
The Oregon Ducks are currently 21-point favorites against Colorado, with the Buffaloes around +600 on the moneyline to win outright.
“We’re seeing a lot of two-way action on the spread,” Joey Feazel, lead college football trader at Caesars Sportsbook, told me over the phone. “We opened a little lower than the market at Oregon -17.5 and we saw mostly sharp action on Oregon. We’re up to Ducks -21 now.”
Colorado bettors have been on a roller-coaster of emotions, as it’s been quite a first few weeks for the Buffs.
- In Week 1, Colorado won outright 45-42 over then-No. 17 TCU as a 21-point underdog and cashed as a +700 underdog on the ML
- In Week 2, Colorado opened as a small underdog against Nebraska and the line was bet to Buffs -3, before ending up Colorado -2.5. The Buffs won 36-14
- Last week, Colorado was a gigantic 23-point favorite against Colorado State and ended up winning 53-45 in double OT (but not covering)
The public has been on the Buffs to cover and on the moneyline in record numbers at sportsbooks, with some Colorado games having three times as many bets as any other college football games that week. In general, it has seen up a Pros vs. Joes showdown, with the sharps going 1-2 and the betting public winning two of the first three weeks on Deion’s team.
“The betting public is still up on us on Colorado games,” Feazel said. “And hats off to them, because they’re the only people who believed.”
Despite the public backing Colorado again — 81% of bets and 79% of the money is on the Buffs to cover +21 against Oregon — there are reasons to be concerned for Deion’s team.
One is the absence of star WR/CB Travis Hunter, who will be out three weeks after taking a brutal late hit from Colorado State safety Henry Blackburn. One oddsmaker told me this week that he’d argue Hunter is the most valuable player on the team, ahead of QB Shedeur Sanders.
“Losing Hunter is a pretty significant impact,” Zachary Lucas, head of retail trading at TwinSpires told me. “We were at Oregon -14 on the lookahead line. We re-opened -20 and we’re now at -21. There’s a lot of hype around Colorado, but the power ratings say a different thing. This line would’ve been 24 or 24.5 if Colorado lost Week 1 or on Saturday. I think Bo Nix and Oregon are going to have a field day.”
Feazel said based on the line movement that he’d ascribe about 3 points of spread value to Hunter.
The other concern is how Colorado looked against Colorado State, in a game the Rams probably should have won.
“Jay Norvell gave opponents a blueprint for how to deal with Colorado’s offense,” Feazel noted. “There have been dramatic shifts in Colorado’s power rating from preseason expectations to the TCU game to after the Colorado State game. I think we’re still higher on Colorado than in the preseason, but the lookahead this summer for this game based on power ratings would’ve been in the 30s.”
Even without Hunter, it’s clear that bettors are still going to back Deion’s team. Over 90% of the ML dollars wagered at DraftKings on the Oregon-Colorado game were on Colorado, as of Wednesday night. And with the high point spread, the ML is going to be a massive decision again for sportsbooks.
“People still love Colorado catching points, getting the plus money,” Lucas said. “Colorado ML is going to be a big liability for us, for sure a bigger ML liability than Week 1. They’re going to be a big liability for us every week.”