The boxing world is finally getting the fight it’s been craving for so long, as Terence Crawford (39-0, 30 KO) and Errol Spence Jr. (28-0, 22 KO) get set to square off for the title of undisputed welterweight champion Saturday night.
Crawford is a small favorite at FanDuel, with -146 odds to Spence’s +116 — hardly a big enough margin to leave anyone surprised with either result. But Crawford’s favored status is warranted as the more experienced fighter at two years Spence’s senior, with 11 more bouts on his undefeated record.
And if styles make fights, there should be a ton of fireworks in this one, but Crawford gets the edge there too.
While both fighters can be patient in their approaches, Spence is by far the more aggressive boxer with an average of 70 punches thrown per round, including about 35 jabs, according to Compubox. The tactician that he is, Spence uses that jab to set up his more powerful blows. However, he only has a total connect percentage of about 30, and that’s before fighting Crawford, who ranks among boxing’s best in opponent punches landed per round.
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If Spence comes to Crawford with that same aggression, he’ll open himself up to Crawford’s incredible power, and Crawford doesn’t miss. He has a power connect percentage of 46.2, which ranks sixth in boxing, according to Compubox. And though Spence also lands his power punches at a high rate, Crawford’s ability to move his feet and get out the way will make a huge difference, as he also ranks among the best in opponent power punch connect percentage.
Not to mention, Crawford, who can fight both orthodox and southpaw, has the reach advantage despite a slightly shorter frame, which will make it harder for the southpaw Spence to establish his jab.
Spence vs. Crawford Odds (FanDuel)
- Spence by decision (+225)
- Spence by KO/TKO/DQ (+500)
- Draw (+1400)
- Crawford by decision (+180)
- Crawford by KO/TKO/DQ (+270)
This isn’t to suggest Crawford will dominate from start to finish. Spence is one of the best for a reason. But between two fighters with knockout power, the one who gets hit less has the better chance to stay on his feet longer. Unless Crawford makes uncharacteristic mistakes that leave him open to more damage than normal, Spence’s best hope is to exercise a ton of patience until he has a real opening.
All signs point to that being a tougher task, which is why I’m rolling with Crawford for the win. And while I lean towards the fight going all 12 rounds, I do like the +320 odds for Spence to be knocked down along the way.
