The Titans front office must feel like it’s playing one frustrating game of Whack-a-Mole.

After two consecutive seasons of playing at an elite level on offense, Tennessee blew up its defensive depth chart this offseason, parting ways with players who combined to play nearly 4,000 snaps during the 2020 NFL season. The defense was due for an overhaul. If the Titans were going to take the next step, the 2020 defense, which ranked 29th in defensive DVOA and 28th in EPA allowed, had to be better.

Time will tell if it is better in 2021, but after some key offseason departures on the other side of the ball, the offense may not be able to hold up its end now.

The Titans parted ways with three offensive starters: WR Corey Davis, RT Dennis Kelly and TE Jonnu Smith. They also lost their play-caller, Arthur Smith, who took the head job in Atlanta. Of course, the two main cogs in the offense, Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry, are still around but there’s reason to believe the offense is going to be dramatically different in 2021 … and not in a good way.

With Jonnu Smith taking his talents up north to New England, the tight end group doesn’t look so formidable. Anthony Firkser has been thrust into a starting role and Geoff Swaim will back him up. Defenses aren’t going to be too threatened by those two and you have to wonder if it’s going to affect the Titans’ ability/willingness to play a lot of sets with two or more tight ends on the field at once. If not, that’s going to be a significant change for the offense, as Tannehill led the league in dropbacks with two or more tight ends on the field.

And Tannehill didn’t just throw a lot of passes from those sets. He was really damn good when he did so, averaging 0.27 EPA per dropback on those plays, which ranked fourth in the NFL per Sports Info Solutions. On all other plays, he averaged 0.12 EPA per dropback with one or no tight ends on the field. Ideally, new offensive coordinator Todd Downing will keep employing those personnel packages — he was the team’s tight end coach last season, after all — but you need the talent to do so and the Titans don’t really have it anymore.

If Downing’s one season as a play-caller in Oakland is a sign of things to come, Tennessee probably won’t be calling nearly as much play-action, either. That season, Derek Carr used play-action on only 14% of his drops, per Pro Football Focus. Only two quarterbacks finished with a lower rate. In 2020, Tannehill led the league in play-action rate. Now you’d expect Downing to adjust but how much of an adjustment will we see? I would expect a rate closer to league average than one that leads the entire NFL.

And if Tennessee isn’t playing so many tight ends, the efficacy of those play-action calls might take a hit, too. Since 2019, Tannehill’s averaged 0.33 EPA per play-action dropback with multiple tight ends on the field. He’s averaged 0.13 EPA per dropback without play-action. The loss of the two Smiths may not seem too big in the grand scheme of things, but it could have a significant impact on Tannehill’s play, which is obviously a big deal.

It’s easy to envision things going south for Tennessee. Henry is a year older and is coming off a career-high 397 touches. Tannehill may have lost his schematic crutch in Arthur Smith. The receiving corps is just A.J. Brown now. The defense could be just as bad as it was a year ago.

Vegas has the Titans win total set at 9.5. For good reason, the under has been a popular bet amongst bettors.