We’re kicking this off with an admission: I am the farthest thing from a college basketball expert.

WAIT! Don’t hit the “x” button on your browser or phone yet.

What I am is a seasoned veteran of some 25 years of filling out NCAA brackets, and while I’ve won a couple of times, I attribute that to pure luck, because that’s what bracket pools are mostly all about.

So these are tips for those of you who casually jump into bracket pools like me and try your best to make sense out of a sport you don’t follow as closely as others. Good luck!

1. Go read some stuff

This is so simple: In the next few days, there will be so much March Madness content with info about the teams, matchups and statistics. You just have to read a handful of them and you’ll see some patterns form about which lower-seeded teams are strong, which high seeds are vulnerable and little factoids that will give you an overall picture.

We’ll even help you get started: Here are three upsets to pick, another bunch of teams who could beat higher seeds, and a list of 25 teams not to trust.

2. Diversify

I will be filling out six brackets this week, plus a few other entries in other March Madness pools that aren’t bracket-centric. Sure, you could fill out one bracket. But one Day 1, when that sneaky 12-seed you picked to win twice goes down, or that No. 2 in the West gets taken down unexpectedly and ruins your bracket, you lose the weeks of fun that come with rooting for your picks over the course of the tournament.

If six sounds like too many, just do two and make sure there isn’t too much overlap.

3. Pick the right amount of upsets

Let’s get into the nitty-gritty here from the NCAA’s site:

“In 27 of the last 34 seasons there have been between 10 and 16 upsets in the NCAA tournament. The annual average is roughly 12.7. There have been as few as four upsets (2007) and as many as 19 (2014) but the sweet spot is obviously somewhere in between.”

So don’t go too crazy with upsets, but also don’t be too chalky.

And don’t expect those upsets to go all the way. Yes, there might be one or two Cinderellas (Loyola-Chicago and Kansas State last year) who will go far, but you’re picking based on probabilities and so will your opponents in your pool, unless you’re in a pool with some Old Dominion fans who happen to pick the Monarchs to go to the Elite Eight and end up being right. Again, remember there’s luck involved too!

4. Do take at least one 12-5 upset …

… But remember that 11-6 and 10-7 upsets happen more frequently, which makes sense given their closeness in seeding. And as that same, very helpful NCAA site post notes, second-round upsets with No. 2 and 3 seeds happen every year. The problem is finding the right one, but if you diversify and read (see above), you have a good chance at nailing that on one of your brackets.

5. Note teams with some advantages or disadvantages

For example: Cincinnati will play two hours away in Columbus. Everyone thought Michigan State got jobbed with their tournament draw (and does that mean the Spartans play with a chip on their shoulder or are vulnerable?).

6. Pick a First Four team to win a game

Momentum is real! Since 2011, when the tournament added play-in games, one team has claimed at least a second victory after winning their initial contest. Syracuse did it last season.

7. One seeds are there for a reason

You should pick at least one No. 1 to make it to the Final Four. It’s rare for all four of them not to make it to the last quartet left (2011 and 2006, if you’re scoring at home). You may not have the guts to pick an 11-seed to go all the way, but I tend to go for at least two No. 1 seeds, a No. 2 in a region where experts think there might be a vulnerable top team and that trendy fourth seed that everyone thinks deserved to be ranked higher.

8. Throw a dart at 8-9 games

I know I’m always going to be wrong either way, so I just click 9 on two games and 8 on the other two.

9. Check your NBA mock drafts before making championship picks

I discovered this one in 2016 thanks to CBS and have used it ever since: “Twenty-three of the past 27 national champions had two or more future NBA first-round picks.”

The trend followed suit the next three years: Villanova in 2016 (Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges), North Carolina the next year (Justin Jackson, Tony Bradley) and Villanova again (Bridges, Donte DiVincenzo, Omari Spellman) all had at least two first-rounders.

Duke — with Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett and Cameron Reddish — are a candidate, as is North Carolina (Coby White, Nassir Little) and Virginia (DeAndre Hunter and Ty Jerome).

10. Give into the randomness and chaos

After reading all of that, you should now heed the words of our Ted Berg: “C’mon. C’mon! We’re all just guessing. It’s guessing.”

So don’t keep yourself up at night with your picks. Lock them in, grab some popcorn and think of it as a way to keep you interested in every game being played from now until the title contest. And enjoy the ride.